Wisconsin vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 4:47WISBraedyn Locke 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)42–7
- Q4 11:11WISTawee Walker 55 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)35–7
- Q4 13:48RUTGKyle Monangai 13 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)28–7
- Q3 4:45WISTawee Walker 9 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)28–0
- Q3 8:14WISDarrion Dupree 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:39WISTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:10WISWill Pauling 16 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBraedyn Locke 20/28, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTawee Walker 24 CAR, 198 YDS, 3 TD
- RecVinny Anthony II 2 REC, 81 YDS
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 12/32, 103 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKyle Monangai 19 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChristian Dremel 2 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWIS up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 463 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:10WIS +17%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 16 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
- Q1 1:39WIS +15%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Rutgers?
Wisconsin 42, Rutgers 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WIS) was correct.
| WIS | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 549 | Total yards | 271 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 103 |
| 309 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 24 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/28 | Comp/Att | 12/32 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 3.2 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 34:56 | Possession | 25:04 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:04 RUTG punt on 4th & 1 at RUTG 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:47WISBraedyn Locke 1 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)42–7
- Q4 11:11WISTawee Walker 55 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)35–7
- Q4 13:48RUTGKyle Monangai 13 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)28–7
- Q3 4:45WISTawee Walker 9 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)28–0
- Q3 8:14WISDarrion Dupree 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:39WISTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:10WISWill Pauling 16 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1521, WIS Elo 1644 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +2.5 (44% to win) — 3.5 points clear of WIS's market line of -1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #117 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| WIS | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.0 (#81) | CORE overall | -4.8 (#85) |
| -5 / -1 | offense / defense | +0 / +5 |
| 1.82 | points / drive | 2.58 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.63 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →