Western Illinois vs. Indiana: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Western Illinois0-1

Indiana1-0

▸

Final

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	0	3	0	0	3
IU	28	14	14	21	77

WESTTeam statsIU

121Total yards701

109Pass378

12Rush323

8First downs33

3-143rd down7-9

3Turnovers0

25:29Possession34:31

Q4 9:10IUCharlie Becker 3 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)3–77
Q4 11:29IURolijah Hardy 12 Yd Interception Return (Nicolas Radicic Kick)3–70
Q4 13:34IUOmar Cooper Jr. 69 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Nicolas Radicic Kick)3–63
Q3 1:02IUTayven Jackson 13 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)3–56
Q3 8:58IUJustice Ellison 47 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)3–49
Q2 0:30WESTAntonio Chadha 31 Yd Field Goal 3–42
Q2 2:27IUKurtis Rourke 1 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–42
Q2 9:40IUElijah Green 11 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–35
Q1 2:03IUTy Son Lawton 19 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–28
Q1 7:41IUElijah Sarratt 71 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–21
Q1 9:30IUJustice Ellison 2 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–14
Q1 12:53IUAndison Coby 38 Yd pass from Kurtis Rourke (Nicolas Radicic Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

IU −44.5

Against the number

IU covered

line IU −44.5

What the numbers say

WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 4.2

Kickoff141 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

IU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IU 100%

Closing line

IU −44.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEST 3 – 77 IU

Western Illinois

PassNathan Lamb 13/25, 109 YDS, 2 INT
RushTorrance Farmer Jr. 5 CAR, 20 YDS
RecChristian Anaya 5 REC, 56 YDS

Indiana

PassKurtis Rourke 15/17, 268 YDS, 2 TD
RushJustice Ellison 9 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
RecElijah Sarratt 6 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD

28.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.64

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

IU up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 47 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

IU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3 WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3 WNorthern Arizona vs Lincoln (CA)66-6 WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14 WMercyhurst vs Lincoln (CA)66-0

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Indiana?

Western Illinois 3, Indiana 77.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.

WEST

24%

Success rate

71%

-0.34

EPA / pass

1.41

-0.21

EPA / rush

0.50

25%

Early-down success

71%

24%

Pass success

77%

24%

Rush success

69%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

62%

Pass rate

31%

11.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.2

WEST

11.1 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

4.2 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

WEST		IU
121	Total yards	701
109	Passing yards	378
12	Rushing yards	323
8	First downs	33
3-14	3rd down	7-9
0-0	4th down	1-2
13/26	Comp/Att	19/21
4.2	Yards per pass	18.0
0.5	Yards per rush	6.9
3	Turnovers	0
9-55	Penalties	2-25
25:29	Possession	34:31

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

WESTTeam statsIU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Indiana?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Western Illinois vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap

WESTTeam statsIU

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Indiana?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?