Lincoln (CA) vs. Northern Arizona: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lincoln (CA)0-1

06

Northern Arizona

▸0066

Final

Walkup Skydome

	1	2	3	4	T
LINC	0	6	0	0	6
NORT	21	24	14	7	66

LINCTeam statsNORT

168Total yards367

81Pass139

87Rush228

6First downs22

5-143rd down4-7

1Turnovers1

34:40Possession25:20

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:11NORTKenveon Stone 5 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–64
• Q3 2:51NORTJ'Wan Evans 1 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–57
• Q3 8:55NORTSeth Cromwell 1 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–50
• Q2 1:57NORTTa'ir Brooks 13 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Marcus Lye Kick)6–43
• Q2 4:09NORTBryzai White 8 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Marcus Lye Kick)6–36
• Q2 11:18NORTBJ Fleming 62 Yd pass from Ty Pennington (J'Wan Evans Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–29
• Q2 11:32NORTAmmon Allen Defensive PAT Conversion6–21
• Q2 11:32LINCDarius Maxwell 38 Yd pass from Jack Clavel (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–21
• Q1 1:27NORTElijah Taylor 15 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Marcus Lye Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:24NORTSeth Cromwell 2 Yd Run (Marcus Lye Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:42NORTTy Pennington 20 Yd Run (Marcus Lye Kick)0–7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LINC aheadNORT ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LINC ahead, below = NORT ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

Leaders

Lincoln (CA)

• PassJack Clavel 10/19, 78 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushAnastacio Prado 18 CAR, 59 YDS
• RecDarius Maxwell 2 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD

Northern Arizona

• PassTy Pennington 8/10, 116 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJ'Wan Evans 6 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
• RecB.J. Fleming 3 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

35.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

102

Points / snap

0.71

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NORT up 53 entering the 4th quarter. Across 46 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NORT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WIndiana vs Western Illinois77-3WNorth Alabama vs Utah Tech60-14WMercyhurst vs Lincoln (CA)66-0

Fourth downs

13 calls

LINC gave up 2.0 points to the model on fourth down.LINC 6/9 · NORT 1/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Northern Arizona?

Lincoln (CA) 6, Northern Arizona 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NORT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LINC

NORT

29%

Success rate

66%

0.02

EPA / pass

0.76

0.01

EPA / rush

0.45

27%

Early-down success

68%

20%

Pass success

63%

35%

Rush success

68%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

10%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

41%

Pass rate

36%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.6

LINC

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

49 scrimmage snaps

NORT

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

53 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LINC		NORT
168	Total yards	367
81	Passing yards	139
87	Rushing yards	228
6	First downs	22
5-14	3rd down	4-7
0-1	4th down	1-2
11/20	Comp/Att	9/13
4.1	Yards per pass	10.7
2.9	Yards per rush	7.1
1	Turnovers	1
8-58	Penalties	4-25
34:40	Possession	25:20

Fourth downs

13 calls

LINC

6/9 with the model

−2.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

NORT

1/2 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 10:35 LINC punt on 4th & 3 at NORT 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LINC 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 8/11 scoring drives

NORTDOWNS5 pl, 31 yds· own 0Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 49Q1

NORTTD7 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1

LINCDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 0Q1

NORTTD3 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q1

LINCTD3 pl, 1 yds· opp 0Q1

LINCTD9 pl, 75 yds· opp 0Q1

NORTTD1 pl, 62 yds· own 0Q2

LINCPUNT7 pl, 20 yds· opp 0Q2

NORTTD4 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ2

LINCPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· opp 0Q2

NORTTD1 pl, 22 yds· opp 22Q2

LINCUncateg2 pl, 3 yds· opp 0Q2

LINCPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· opp 0Q3

NORTTD10 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3

LINCPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

NORTTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 38Q3

LINCINT2 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

NORTTD5 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3

LINCPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q4

NORTINT4 pl, 20 yds· midfieldQ4

LINCPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 7Q4

NORTMISS7 pl, 34 yds· opp 47Q4

LINCEND4 pl, 18 yds· own 20Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:11NORTKenveon Stone 5 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–64
• Q3 2:51NORTJ'Wan Evans 1 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–57
• Q3 8:55NORTSeth Cromwell 1 Yd Run (Jordan Westrich Kick)6–50
• Q2 1:57NORTTa'ir Brooks 13 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Marcus Lye Kick)6–43
• Q2 4:09NORTBryzai White 8 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Marcus Lye Kick)6–36
• Q2 11:18NORTBJ Fleming 62 Yd pass from Ty Pennington (J'Wan Evans Run for Two-Point Conversion)6–29
• Q2 11:32NORTAmmon Allen Defensive PAT Conversion6–21
• Q2 11:32LINCDarius Maxwell 38 Yd pass from Jack Clavel (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–21
• Q1 1:27NORTElijah Taylor 15 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Marcus Lye Kick)0–21
• Q1 3:24NORTSeth Cromwell 2 Yd Run (Marcus Lye Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:42NORTTy Pennington 20 Yd Run (Marcus Lye Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →