Navy vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsRICE
- Q4 8:34NAVYNathan Kirkwood 21 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 2:00RICEDean Connors 9 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:48NAVYBlake Horvath 9 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:41RICETim Horn 47 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:41RICEMatt Sykes 17 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:30RICEDean Connors 4 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBlake Horvath 10/21, 120 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBlake Horvath 16 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 3 REC, 56 YDS
- PassE.J. Warner 28/40, 239 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDean Connors 18 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMatt Sykes 8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:00RICE +20%
Dean Connors run for 9 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q1 2:41RICE +20%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for 17 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q2 8:48NAVY +19%
Blake Horvath run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
- Q1 9:30RICE +17%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
- Q2 12:41RICE +12%
Tim Horn 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:38RICE +7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 13 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Rice?
Navy 10, Rice 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NAVY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 344 |
| 120 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 12 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 10/21 | Comp/Att | 28/40 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 28:46 | Possession | 31:14 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:04 RICE punt on 4th & 2 at RICE 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:34NAVYNathan Kirkwood 21 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 2:00RICEDean Connors 9 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)7–24
- Q2 8:48NAVYBlake Horvath 9 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–17
- Q2 12:41RICETim Horn 47 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 2:41RICEMatt Sykes 17 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:30RICEDean Connors 4 Yd Run (Tim Horn Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1236, NAVY Elo 1564 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +10.7 (25% to win) — 2.3 points clear of RICE's market line of +13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #22 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →The series is level at 7–7 · 50% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.1 (#25) | CORE overall | -2.8 (#76) |
| +11 / -3 | offense / defense | -5 / -2 |
| 2.74 | points / drive | 1.27 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.16 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →