Massachusetts vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsUGA
- Q4 3:28UGAChris Cole 28 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–59
- Q4 6:33UGANate Frazier 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–52
- Q3 1:39UGANate Frazier 15 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–45
- Q3 8:44UGANate Frazier 9 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–38
- Q3 12:53MASSJakobie Keeney-James 75 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Jacob Lurie Kick)21–31
- Q3 13:08UGAPeyton Woodring 53 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 0:43UGAArian Smith 34 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:55MASSJalen John 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:56UGADominic Lovett 15 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:30UGACash Jones 8 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:05UGAOscar Delp 17 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:15MASSCJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 7/16, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen John 9 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJakobie Keeney-James 3 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarson Beck 20/31, 297 YDS, 4 TD
- RushNate Frazier 21 CAR, 136 YDS, 3 TD
- RecArian Smith 3 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Georgia?
Massachusetts 21, Georgia 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| MASS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 550 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 342 |
| 226 | Rushing yards | 208 |
| 14 | First downs | 34 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 8/17 | Comp/Att | 23/35 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 30:04 | Possession | 29:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:16 MASS punt on 4th & 27 at UGA 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:28UGAChris Cole 28 Yd Fumble Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–59
- Q4 6:33UGANate Frazier 2 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–52
- Q3 1:39UGANate Frazier 15 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–45
- Q3 8:44UGANate Frazier 9 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)21–38
- Q3 12:53MASSJakobie Keeney-James 75 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Jacob Lurie Kick)21–31
- Q3 13:08UGAPeyton Woodring 53 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 0:43UGAArian Smith 34 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:55MASSJalen John 3 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)14–21
- Q2 8:56UGADominic Lovett 15 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–21
- Q2 10:30UGACash Jones 8 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:05UGAOscar Delp 17 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:15MASSCJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2029, MASS Elo 1017 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -42.9 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.7 (#117) | CORE overall | +18.8 (#11) |
| -2 / +13 | offense / defense | +9 / -10 |
| 1.80 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 3.63 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →