#21Jalen John

RB·Massachusetts·2024

Jalen John is a Explosive Back for Massachusetts. Jalen's 2024 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 124 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalen John's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

583 Rush yards5 Rush TD111 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions119 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume53
Explosiveness46
Consistency54
Receiving58

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency54th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.58 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.94 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Wagner.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Michigan	L14-28	-13.3	14	53	3.8	1	5	42	0	0.46
2	@Toledo	L23-38	-2.5	14	37	2.6	0	1	10	0	-0.18
3	@Buffalo	L3-34	-4.0	11	28	2.5	0	5	29	0	0.14
4	vsCentral Connecticut	W35-31	—	13	65	5.0	0	1	0	0	0.24
5	@Miami (OH)	L20-23	1.3	8	27	3.4	0	1	0	0	-0.18
9	vsWagner	W35-7	—	2	52	26.0	0	—	—	—	1.94
10	@Mississippi State	L20-45	-4.1	7	17	2.4	0	2	19	0	-0.07
12	vsLiberty	L34-35	0.2	15	119	7.9	2	—	—	—	0.64
13	@Georgia	L21-59	24.3	9	107	11.9	1	—	—	—	0.61
14	vsUConn	L42-47	1.5	18	78	4.3	1	2	19	0	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.6%

Passing plays

5.9%

Rushing plays

27.9%

Standard downs

22.4%

Passing downs

10.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).