Houston vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsTCU
- Q4 1:58HOUJack Martin 27 Yd Field Goal 30–19
- Q4 9:25TCUJack Bech 29 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)27–19
- Q4 13:35HOUJack Martin 28 Yd Field Goal 27–12
- Q3 5:27TCUJeremy Payne 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q2 1:48HOUZeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)24–6
- Q2 2:18TCUSavion Williams 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann PAT failed)17–6
- Q2 4:55HOUJack Martin 34 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 13:38HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 2 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)14–0
- Q1 5:29HOUDevan Williams 8 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Jack Martin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassZeon Chriss-Gremillion 15/18, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- RushZeon Chriss-Gremillion 11 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMaliq Carr 2 REC, 39 YDS
- PassJosh Hoover 23/37, 233 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushCam Cook 14 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecJP Richardson 9 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:55HOU +21%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the TCU 14
- Q2 13:38HOU +20%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q4 9:25TCU +18%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
- Q1 5:29HOU +18%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Devan Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
- Q2 1:48HOU +17%
Zeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)
- Q2 2:18TCU +16%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann PAT MISSED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. TCU?
Houston 30, TCU 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 299 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 66 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/20 | Comp/Att | 23/37 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 3-39 |
| 36:53 | Possession | 23:07 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58HOUJack Martin 27 Yd Field Goal 30–19
- Q4 9:25TCUJack Bech 29 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)27–19
- Q4 13:35HOUJack Martin 28 Yd Field Goal 27–12
- Q3 5:27TCUJeremy Payne 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)24–12
- Q2 1:48HOUZeon Chriss 71 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)24–6
- Q2 2:18TCUSavion Williams 21 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann PAT failed)17–6
- Q2 4:55HOUJack Martin 34 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 13:38HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 2 Yd Run (Jack Martin Kick)14–0
- Q1 5:29HOUDevan Williams 8 Yd pass from Zeon Chriss (Jack Martin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1551, HOU Elo 1352 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -10.4 (76% to win) — 6.1 points clear of HOU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #10 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →The series is level at 14–14 · 39% have been one-possession games
| HOU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.9 (#92) | CORE overall | +12.5 (#31) |
| -12 / -4 | offense / defense | +10 / -2 |
| 1.13 | points / drive | 2.68 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →