Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsODU
- Q4 5:34GASOOJ Arnold 4 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Gavin Stewart PAT failed)19–47
- Q4 10:37ODUEthan Sanchez 38 Yd Field Goal 13–47
- Q3 0:24GASODalen Cobb 55 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart PAT failed)13–44
- Q3 3:24ODUColton Joseph 30 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–44
- Q3 11:24ODUAaron Young 9 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–37
- Q2 0:46ODUDemariyon Houston 7 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–30
- Q2 3:40ODUEthan Sanchez 29 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 7:51GASOJosh Dallas 59 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–20
- Q2 13:49ODUPat Conroy 56 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–20
- Q1 1:17ODUDemariyon Houston 23 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez PAT blocked)0–13
- Q1 8:07ODUDevin Roche 8 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJC French IV 17/29, 259 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushOJ Arnold 7 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecDalen Cobb 7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- PassColton Joseph 20/26, 304 YDS, 4 TD
- RushAaron Young 14 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsiah Paige 7 REC, 100 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 342 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:07ODU +18%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Devin Roche for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q1 1:17ODU +14%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 23 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez PAT BLOCKED)
- Q2 13:49ODU +10%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Pat Conroy for 56 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 7:51GASO +9%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 59 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q2 3:40ODU +6%
Ethan Sanchez 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:46ODU +5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Demariyon Houston for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion?
Georgia Southern 19, Old Dominion 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| GASO | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 416 | Total yards | 560 |
| 303 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 256 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 11.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-57 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 25:08 | Possession | 34:52 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:31 ODU punt on 4th & 1 at ODU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:34GASOOJ Arnold 4 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Gavin Stewart PAT failed)19–47
- Q4 10:37ODUEthan Sanchez 38 Yd Field Goal 13–47
- Q3 0:24GASODalen Cobb 55 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart PAT failed)13–44
- Q3 3:24ODUColton Joseph 30 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–44
- Q3 11:24ODUAaron Young 9 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–37
- Q2 0:46ODUDemariyon Houston 7 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–30
- Q2 3:40ODUEthan Sanchez 29 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 7:51GASOJosh Dallas 59 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–20
- Q2 13:49ODUPat Conroy 56 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–20
- Q1 1:17ODUDemariyon Houston 23 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez PAT blocked)0–13
- Q1 8:07ODUDevin Roche 8 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1416, GASO Elo 1449 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -1.1 (54% to win) — 2.1 points clear of ODU's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #119 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →| GASO | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 (#93) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#58) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / -1 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →