Colorado vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats


COLOTeam statsKU
- Q4 11:47KUDevin Neal 2 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)21–37
- Q3 7:18KUDevin Neal 1 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)21–30
- Q3 11:59COLOTravis Hunter 26 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–23
- Q2 0:07KUTabor Allen 25 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 1:51COLODrelon Miller 19 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–20
- Q2 3:47KUTabor Allen 23 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 7:18COLOTravis Hunter 51 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:02KUDevin Neal 9 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:39KUTabor Allen 24 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:44KUDevin Neal 51 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Tabor Allen Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Colorado had the brightest stars at Arrowhead. Kansas had Devin Neal, and a back who simply would not stop running.
There is a kind of football game that gets decided by who has the best player on the field, and there is another kind that gets decided by who has the most willing one. Saturday at Arrowhead, Colorado brought the first kind of star and Kansas brought the second, and by the time the dust settled it was the Jayhawks walking off the field at GEHA Field with a 37-21 win that never felt as close as the scoreboard made it look for a while.
- PassShedeur Sanders 23/29, 266 YDS, 3 TD
- RushShedeur Sanders 4 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecTravis Hunter 8 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalon Daniels 14/21, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevin Neal 37 CAR, 207 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDevin Neal 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,694 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:59COLO +23%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 26 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q3 7:18KU +23%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
- Q2 1:51COLO +18%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 11:44KU +18%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 51 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
- Q2 7:18COLO +13%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 51 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 9:02KU +13%
Devin Neal run for 9 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Kansas?
Colorado 21, Kansas 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 520 |
| 266 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 42 | Rushing yards | 331 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-7 | 3rd down | 9-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 14/21 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 19:49 | Possession | 40:11 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:22 COLO go for it on 4th & 22 at KU 29. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.29 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:47KUDevin Neal 2 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)21–37
- Q3 7:18KUDevin Neal 1 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)21–30
- Q3 11:59COLOTravis Hunter 26 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–23
- Q2 0:07KUTabor Allen 25 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 1:51COLODrelon Miller 19 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–20
- Q2 3:47KUTabor Allen 23 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 7:18COLOTravis Hunter 51 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–17
- Q2 9:02KUDevin Neal 9 Yd Run (Tabor Allen Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:39KUTabor Allen 24 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:44KUDevin Neal 51 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Tabor Allen Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1671, COLO Elo 1684 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects KU +0.5 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#73 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #116 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #23 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Colorado leads 42–26–3 · Kansas has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| COLO | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#22) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#28) |
| +3 / -12 | offense / defense | +17 / +4 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +15 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Neal Runs Wild as Kansas Buries Colorado at Arrowhead
Colorado had the brightest stars at Arrowhead. Kansas had Devin Neal, and a back who simply would not stop running.
His name is Devin Neal, and the Buckeyes of Boulder will be seeing him in their sleep. The very first time Kansas had the ball, Jalon Daniels dropped back, found Neal leaking out of the backfield, and watched him run away from everybody for 51 yards and a touchdown. Eleven minutes into the game, the underdog led, and the tone was set.
What followed was a strange, dizzying second quarter where Colorado kept answering and Kansas kept refusing to let the answers matter. Neal pounded in a 9-yard score. Shedeur Sanders fired back, hitting Travis Hunter on a 51-yard catch-and-go that brought the visitors roaring back. But every time Colorado scored, Tabor Allen trotted out and chipped three more points off the lead — a 23-yarder, a 25-yarder at the gun. Sanders found Drelon Miller for 19 and a score, and still, somehow, Kansas went to the locker room ahead. Colorado was trading touchdowns for a deficit.
You could feel the math working against them, even if nobody in the stands would have called it that. Sanders was magnificent — 266 yards, three touchdowns, two of them to Hunter, the best player anyone in that building had ever watched. But great players make great plays, and great teams make great drives. Colorado lived on the highlight. Kansas just kept moving the chains and handing the ball to Neal.
The third quarter is where it tipped for good. Sanders hit Hunter again, this time from 26 out, and for one breath Colorado had life. Then Neal answered with a 1-yard plunge, and the bleeding wouldn't stop. He had already broken loose for 47 yards earlier, then 28 more, dragging the Colorado defense around the yard like a man who had decided the night belonged to him. By the time he punched in his third touchdown from two yards out early in the fourth, it was 37, and Arrowhead knew.
And then came the part that tells you everything. Down two scores, Colorado drove and drove — and got nothing. They reached the Kansas 10, and a holding flag snuffed it out. Late, they pushed inside the 20 again, and the drive died there too, a timeout the only thing left to call. Two trips into the shadow of the goal line in the fourth quarter, two empty-handed walks back. The stars kept making plays. The points stopped coming.
Sanders threw for 266 and three scores and lost by 16. Neal ran for 207, scored three times, and caught a fourth. That is the whole story. Colorado had the brightest lights; Kansas had the back who wouldn't go down, the offense that never stopped marching, and the patience to let a flashy favorite punch itself out. The trophy went home with the team nobody picked — and they earned every yard of it.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
