BYU vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsASU
- Q4 8:44BYUKeelan Marion 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–28
- Q3 0:43BYUJojo Phillips 21 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Jake Retzlaff Pass to Darius Lassiter for Two-Point Conversion)17–28
- Q3 2:06ASUXavier Guillory 61 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)9–28
- Q3 2:49BYUKeelan Marion 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–21
- Q2 0:25BYUWill Ferrin 49 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 1:53ASUCam Skattebo 23 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:29ASUCam Skattebo 4 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:41ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
A cold-blooded comeback in Tempe came down to one pass into traffic, and a Sun Devil ran the other way with it.
For three quarters in Tempe, this was Cam Skattebo's evening and everyone else was just renting space on the field. He scored from three yards in the first quarter, from four yards in the second, and then, with under two minutes left in the half, he took one 23 yards to the house — pinballing through arm tackles like a man late for a bus. By halftime Arizona State led, BYU had managed a lone 49-yard Will Ferrin field goal as the clock ran out, and the Cougars looked like a team trying to find the road map after dark.
Then the third quarter happened, and BYU remembered who it was. Keelan Marion punched in a 10-yard touchdown run to make it a one-score chase. The trouble started right there: the Cougars went for two and the conversion died on the turf. It was the first of three times BYU would gamble for the extra points and come up empty, and on a night decided by five, every one of those misses would sit in the box score like an unpaid bill.
- PassJake Retzlaff 23/38, 346 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLJ Martin 9 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecChase Roberts 6 REC, 108 YDS
- PassSam Leavitt 16/25, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Skattebo 28 CAR, 147 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJordyn Tyson 9 REC, 125 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,141 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:34ASU +25%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the BYU 11
- Q4 8:44BYU +20%
Keelan Marion run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q1 6:41ASU +18%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
- Q2 4:29ASU +15%
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
- Q4 8:32BYU +12%
Kyson Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 24
- Q3 0:43BYU +10%
Jojo Phillips 21 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Jake Retzlaff Pass to Darius Lassiter for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Arizona State?
BYU 23, Arizona State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
| BYU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 440 | Total yards | 401 |
| 346 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 27 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 9.1 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 9-76 |
| 24:55 | Possession | 35:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:28 ASU punt on 4th & 10 at BYU 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:44BYUKeelan Marion 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–28
- Q3 0:43BYUJojo Phillips 21 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Jake Retzlaff Pass to Darius Lassiter for Two-Point Conversion)17–28
- Q3 2:06ASUXavier Guillory 61 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)9–28
- Q3 2:49BYUKeelan Marion 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–21
- Q2 0:25BYUWill Ferrin 49 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 1:53ASUCam Skattebo 23 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–21
- Q2 4:29ASUCam Skattebo 4 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:41ASUCam Skattebo 3 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1608, BYU Elo 1667 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU PK (51% to win) — 3.5 points clear of BYU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#126 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #43 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Arizona State leads 21–8 · 28% have been one-possession games
| BYU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#17) | CORE overall | +16.5 (#19) |
| +7 / -10 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 3.03 |
| 1.82 | allowed / drive | 1.92 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Skattebo Bullies BYU, Then the Last Throw Sails the Wrong Way
A cold-blooded comeback in Tempe came down to one pass into traffic, and a Sun Devil ran the other way with it.
Arizona State answered the way good teams do. Sam Leavitt dropped back, found Xavier Guillory over the top, and the receiver outran the whole secondary for 61 yards and a touchdown — a single snap that erased BYU's momentum in the time it takes to exhale. But Jake Retzlaff would not let the night close. He threw for 297 yards and kept the Cougars upright, hitting Jojo Phillips for a 21-yard score late in the third, then converting the two-pointer to Darius Lassiter to claw back within range.
Marion's second touchdown — a one-yard plunge early in the fourth — pulled BYU to within striking distance again, and from there it became a test of nerve in the red zone. This is where Arizona State quietly won the game without scoring: the Sun Devils kept marching into BYU territory and the Cougar defense kept slamming the door. Skattebo was stuffed for no gain at the 11. He was dragged down at the 3. Drive after drive, ASU got close and got nothing — and yet the clock kept melting, and BYU kept needing one more possession it didn't have time for.
The throw that ended it
It came down to the final minute. BYU needed a touchdown, and Retzlaff — who had been the bravest man on the field for two quarters — let one go into traffic. Javan Robinson stepped in front of it and took the interception 62 yards the other way, all the way down to the BYU 7. There was no flag, no replay reprieve, no last gasp. The pass that was supposed to win the game handed it away instead, and Arizona State knelt on a 28-23 lead it had earned the hard way.
So Skattebo gets the headline he deserved — 147 yards, three touchdowns, a back who simply would not be tackled cleanly — but the colder truth is about discipline. BYU outgained nobody's imagination; Retzlaff threw for nearly 300 and his receivers made plays. What sank the Cougars were the small refusals: three two-point tries that never converted, and one throw too many into a crowd. In a five-point game, that's the whole story.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →