Oregon vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsASU
- Q4 5:09ASUDario Longhetto 34 Yd Field Goal 49–13
- Q4 8:39ASUMelquan Stovall 15 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)49–10
- Q4 14:20ORECasey Kelly 19 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)49–3
- Q3 5:33ASUDario Longhetto 38 Yd Field Goal 42–3
- Q2 0:10ORETez Johnson 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)42–0
- Q2 7:22OREGary Bryant Jr. 71 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)35–0
- Q2 9:40ORETroy Franklin 45 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)28–0
- Q1 0:27ORETroy Franklin 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)21–0
- Q1 6:53OREPatrick Herbert 49 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:34OREPatrick Herbert 23 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ASU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 7.0
- PassBo Nix 24/29, 404 YDS, 6 TD
- RushBucky Irving 11 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecTroy Franklin 8 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- PassTrenton Bourguet 20/37, 142 YDS
- RushCam Skattebo 8 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecElijhah Badger 7 REC, 64 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 216 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Arizona State?
Oregon 49, Arizona State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 603 | Total yards | 316 |
| 463 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 111 |
| 31 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 28/36 | Comp/Att | 25/47 |
| 12.9 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-37 |
| 32:58 | Possession | 27:02 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:14 ORE go for it on 4th & 28 at ASU 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:09ASUDario Longhetto 34 Yd Field Goal 49–13
- Q4 8:39ASUMelquan Stovall 15 Yd Run (Dario Longhetto Kick)49–10
- Q4 14:20ORECasey Kelly 19 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)49–3
- Q3 5:33ASUDario Longhetto 38 Yd Field Goal 42–3
- Q2 0:10ORETez Johnson 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)42–0
- Q2 7:22OREGary Bryant Jr. 71 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)35–0
- Q2 9:40ORETroy Franklin 45 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)28–0
- Q1 0:27ORETroy Franklin 16 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)21–0
- Q1 6:53OREPatrick Herbert 49 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:34OREPatrick Herbert 23 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1368, ORE Elo 1976 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU +21.9 (9% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon leads 21–18 · 31% have been one-possession games
| ORE | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| +40.9 (#1) | CORE overall | -12.7 (#103) |
| +28 / -13 | offense / defense | -8 / +4 |
| 4.02 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →