Ohio State vs. Indiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsIU
- Q4 4:26OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 23–3
- Q3 1:51OSUMiyan Williams 3 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)20–3
- Q3 6:42OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 0:03OSUJayden Fielding 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 6:15IUChris Freeman 42 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 7:16OSUMiyan Williams 7 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKyle McCord 20/33, 239 YDS, 1 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 8 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecCade Stover 5 REC, 98 YDS
- PassBrendan Sorsby 8/15, 58 YDS
- RushChristian Turner 7 CAR, 29 YDS
- RecCam Camper 3 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:16OSU +7%
Miyan Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Indiana?
Ohio State 23, Indiana 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 380 | Total yards | 153 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 82 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 71 |
| 21 | First downs | 8 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 21/36 | Comp/Att | 9/20 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-41 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 31:55 | Possession | 28:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:24 OSU go for it on 4th & 9 at IU 17. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.97 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 23–3
- Q3 1:51OSUMiyan Williams 3 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)20–3
- Q3 6:42OSUJayden Fielding 22 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 0:03OSUJayden Fielding 40 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 6:15IUChris Freeman 42 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 7:16OSUMiyan Williams 7 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IU Elo 1388, OSU Elo 1904 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IU +18.2 (13% to win) — 10.8 points clear of IU's market line of +29. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 81–13–5 · 30% have been one-possession games
| OSU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| +36.4 (#2) | CORE overall | -9.1 (#96) |
| +15 / -21 | offense / defense | -2 / +7 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 1.60 |
| 0.98 | allowed / drive | 2.65 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →