Minnesota vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsOSU
- Q4 6:43MINNDragan Kesich 54 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q4 13:43OSUCade Stover 1 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–37
- Q3 10:17OSUJayden Fielding 32 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q3 13:53OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–27
- Q3 14:48OSUTreVeyon Henderson 75 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–20
- Q2 4:51OSUJayden Fielding 26 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 13:05OSUJayden Fielding 47 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:22OSUTreVeyon Henderson 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MINN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 11/19, 89 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Nubin 19 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecCorey Crooms Jr. 2 REC, 42 YDS
- PassKyle McCord 20/30, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 15 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEmeka Egbuka 5 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Ohio State?
Minnesota 3, Ohio State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| MINN | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 159 | Total yards | 434 |
| 89 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 215 |
| 10 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/19 | Comp/Att | 22/32 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-15 | Penalties | 5-43 |
| 28:38 | Possession | 31:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:15 MINN punt on 4th & 5 at OSU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:43MINNDragan Kesich 54 Yd Field Goal 3–37
- Q4 13:43OSUCade Stover 1 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–37
- Q3 10:17OSUJayden Fielding 32 Yd Field Goal 0–30
- Q3 13:53OSUMarvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Kyle McCord (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–27
- Q3 14:48OSUTreVeyon Henderson 75 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–20
- Q2 4:51OSUJayden Fielding 26 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q2 13:05OSUJayden Fielding 47 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 9:22OSUTreVeyon Henderson 9 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2084, MINN Elo 1531 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -24.5 (94% to win) — 3.0 points clear of MINN's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 49–7 · Ohio State has won 14 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| MINN | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 (#88) | CORE overall | +36.4 (#2) |
| -6 / -0 | offense / defense | +15 / -21 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 2.64 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 0.98 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →