Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsCCU
- Q4 9:49CCUReese White 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)6–34
- Q2 0:03MRSHRece Verhoff 44 Yd Field Goal 6–27
- Q2 2:57CCUDe'Andre Coleman 27 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)3–27
- Q2 5:00CCUJared Brown 59 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)3–20
- Q2 7:23MRSHRece Verhoff 23 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 12:40CCUKade Hensley 33 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 6:18CCUJared Brown 30 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:55CCUKade Hensley 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassCam Fancher 11/22, 125 YDS, 2 INT
- RushRasheen Ali 12 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecDeMarcus Harris 5 REC, 61 YDS
- PassJarrett Guest 14/20, 289 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushEthan Vasko 5 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecJared Brown 5 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:18CCU +18%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Jared Brown for 30 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q2 5:00CCU +14%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Jared Brown for 59 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q2 12:40CCU +11%
Kade Hensley 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 10:55CCU +8%
Kade Hensley 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 2:57CCU +6%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to De'Andre Coleman for 27 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q2 7:23MRSH +5%
Rece Verhoff 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. Coastal Carolina?
Marshall 6, Coastal Carolina 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 283 | Total yards | 427 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 81 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/45 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 5-62 |
| 27:53 | Possession | 32:07 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:44 MRSH go for it on 4th & 6 at CCU 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:49CCUReese White 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)6–34
- Q2 0:03MRSHRece Verhoff 44 Yd Field Goal 6–27
- Q2 2:57CCUDe'Andre Coleman 27 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)3–27
- Q2 5:00CCUJared Brown 59 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)3–20
- Q2 7:23MRSHRece Verhoff 23 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 12:40CCUKade Hensley 33 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 6:18CCUJared Brown 30 Yd pass from Jarrett Guest (Kade Hensley Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:55CCUKade Hensley 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1405, MRSH Elo 1507 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +1.7 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 13 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #81 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| MRSH | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.4 (#76) | CORE overall | -0.2 (#63) |
| -5 / -2 | offense / defense | +2 / +2 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.04 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +0 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →