Arizona vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsWSU
- Q4 6:52ARIZJonah Coleman 23 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)44–6
- Q4 12:37ARIZDJ Williams 15 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)37–6
- Q3 2:57ARIZJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)30–6
- Q3 10:49ARIZTyler Loop 21 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q2 8:07ARIZTyler Loop 40 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 14:53ARIZRayshon Luke 40 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)17–6
- Q1 5:18ARIZTyler Loop 37 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q1 8:29ARIZJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:01WSUNakia Watson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassNoah Fifita 34/43, 342 YDS
- RushRayshon Luke 10 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonah Coleman 4 REC, 98 YDS
- PassCam Ward 22/30, 192 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDylan Paine 3 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecNakia Watson 5 REC, 88 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:53ARIZ +20%
Rayshon Luke run for 40 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q1 8:29ARIZ +15%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q1 10:01WSU +12%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 8:07ARIZ +11%
Tyler Loop 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:49ARIZ +9%
Tyler Loop 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 5:18ARIZ +8%
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. Washington State?
Arizona 44, Washington State 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARIZ | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 516 | Total yards | 234 |
| 342 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 174 | Rushing yards | 35 |
| 26 | First downs | 12 |
| 10-17 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 34/43 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-55 | Penalties | 5-42 |
| 38:39 | Possession | 21:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:49 ARIZ field goal on 4th & 3 at WSU 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:52ARIZJonah Coleman 23 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)44–6
- Q4 12:37ARIZDJ Williams 15 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)37–6
- Q3 2:57ARIZJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)30–6
- Q3 10:49ARIZTyler Loop 21 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q2 8:07ARIZTyler Loop 40 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q2 14:53ARIZRayshon Luke 40 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)17–6
- Q1 5:18ARIZTyler Loop 37 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q1 8:29ARIZJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)7–6
- Q1 10:01WSUNakia Watson 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1615, ARIZ Elo 1471 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #47 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds · #21 of 51 in 2023 by biggest poll gap.
The 2023 upset archive →Arizona leads 28–19 · 34% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.3 (#22) | CORE overall | +4.8 (#46) |
| +12 / -3 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 3.15 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +18 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →