Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsCCU
- Q4 5:33ODUAli Jennings III 2 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)49–21
- Q4 10:16ODUBlake Watson 67 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)42–21
- Q4 11:01CCUTyler Roberts 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)35–21
- Q3 1:23ODUIsaiah Spencer 21 Yd pass from D.J. Mack Jr. (Ethan Sanchez Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:13CCUJared Brown 75 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)28–14
- Q3 5:23ODUIsiah Paige 22 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–7
- Q3 9:44ODUD.J. Mack Jr. 20 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–7
- Q2 2:19ODUBlake Watson 58 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q2 2:52CCUJacob Jenkins 8 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:49ODUBlake Watson 25 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassHayden Wolff 12/16, 184 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBlake Watson 19 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD
- RecAli Jennings 6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGrayson McCall 26/34, 358 YDS, 3 TD
- RushReese White 10 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecSam Pinckney 7 REC, 113 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:19ODU +28%
Blake Watson run for 58 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q3 9:44ODU +25%
D.J. Mack Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 2:52CCU +19%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 8 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q3 5:13CCU +16%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 75 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)
- Q1 11:49ODU +15%
Blake Watson run for 25 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q3 1:23ODU +12%
D.J. Mack Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Spencer for 21 yds for a TD, (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Coastal Carolina?
Old Dominion 49, Coastal Carolina 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ODU | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 528 | Total yards | 456 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 366 |
| 323 | Rushing yards | 90 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-6 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 27/38 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 10.1 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-88 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 23:02 | Possession | 36:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:07 CCU go for it on 4th & 16 at ODU 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:33ODUAli Jennings III 2 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)49–21
- Q4 10:16ODUBlake Watson 67 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)42–21
- Q4 11:01CCUTyler Roberts 9 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)35–21
- Q3 1:23ODUIsaiah Spencer 21 Yd pass from D.J. Mack Jr. (Ethan Sanchez Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:13CCUJared Brown 75 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)28–14
- Q3 5:23ODUIsiah Paige 22 Yd pass from Hayden Wolff (Ethan Sanchez Kick)28–7
- Q3 9:44ODUD.J. Mack Jr. 20 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)21–7
- Q2 2:19ODUBlake Watson 58 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–7
- Q2 2:52CCUJacob Jenkins 8 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Kade Hensley Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:49ODUBlake Watson 25 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1644, ODU Elo 1351 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -14.1 (83% to win) — 3.1 points clear of CCU's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #48 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| ODU | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.3 (#107) | CORE overall | -0.8 (#70) |
| -7 / +6 | offense / defense | +10 / +11 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.78 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →