Middle Tennessee vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsMIA
- Q4 6:05MIAThaddius Franklin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)45–31
- Q4 8:42MTSUFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)45–24
- Q4 14:34MIAKey'Shawn Smith 91 Yd Kickoff Return (Andres Borregales Kick)38–24
- Q4 14:45MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 98 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)38–17
- Q3 6:08MIAThaddius Franklin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)31–17
- Q3 8:01MTSUElijah Metcalf 69 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)31–10
- Q2 1:20MIAHenry Parrish Jr. 6 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)24–10
- Q2 12:17MTSUChase Cunningham 9 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)24–3
- Q1 4:21MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 71 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)17–3
- Q1 4:52MIAAndres Borregales 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 10:04MTSUZaylin Wood 15 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:46MTSUZeke Rankin 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassChase Cunningham 16/25, 408 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushFrank Peasant 19 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ England-Chisolm 2 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJake Garcia 10/19, 169 YDS
- RushHenry Parrish Jr. 14 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecKey'Shawn Smith 4 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:17MTSU +21%
Chase Cunningham run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q1 4:21MTSU +19%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 71 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q1 10:04MTSU +17%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted for a TD Zaylin Wood return for 15 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q2 1:20MIA +16%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q4 14:45MTSU +13%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 98 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q3 6:08MIA +12%
Thaddius Franklin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Miami?
Middle Tennessee 45, Miami 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MTSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 367 |
| 408 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 99 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 14 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 7-20 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 5-8 |
| 16/25 | Comp/Att | 26/51 |
| 16.3 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-82 | Penalties | 4-15 |
| 26:02 | Possession | 33:58 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:09 MTSU punt on 4th & 1 at MTSU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:05MIAThaddius Franklin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)45–31
- Q4 8:42MTSUFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)45–24
- Q4 14:34MIAKey'Shawn Smith 91 Yd Kickoff Return (Andres Borregales Kick)38–24
- Q4 14:45MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 98 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)38–17
- Q3 6:08MIAThaddius Franklin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Andres Borregales Kick)31–17
- Q3 8:01MTSUElijah Metcalf 69 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)31–10
- Q2 1:20MIAHenry Parrish Jr. 6 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)24–10
- Q2 12:17MTSUChase Cunningham 9 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)24–3
- Q1 4:21MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 71 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)17–3
- Q1 4:52MIAAndres Borregales 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 10:04MTSUZaylin Wood 15 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:46MTSUZeke Rankin 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1590, MTSU Elo 1354 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -11.8 (79% to win) — 13.7 points clear of MTSU's market line of -25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #1 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #60 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →| MTSU | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#86) | CORE overall | -2.3 (#73) |
| -8 / -3 | offense / defense | -6 / -4 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 1.89 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →