San José State vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsUNM
- Q4 9:39SJSUSam Olson 1 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–38
- Q3 0:00SJSUBailey Gaither 69 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:00SJSUMatt Mercurio 35 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 10:55UNMTevaka Tuioti 1 Yd Run (George Steinkamp Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:06UNMAndrew Erickson 4 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (George Steinkamp Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:10SJSUTre Walker 26 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:33UNMCedric Patterson III 39 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (George Steinkamp Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:36SJSUIsaiah Hamilton 43 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:31SJSUTre Walker 37 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNick Starkel 34/47, 467 YDS, 5 TD
- RushIsaiah Holiness 9 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecBailey Gaither 10 REC, 208 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTevaka Tuioti 20/35, 294 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTevaka Tuioti 14 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAndrew Erickson 3 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:55SJSU +25%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 1 yd for a TD (George Steinkamp KICK)
- Q1 0:31UNM +20%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 37 yds for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q2 6:10UNM +19%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q2 10:36UNM +19%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 43 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK)
- Q3 0:00UNM +18%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 69 yds for a TD (Matt Mercurio KICK) NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q2 2:06SJSU +17%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 4 yds for a TD SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) declined (George Steinkamp KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. New Mexico?
San José State 38, New Mexico 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
| SJSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 579 | Total yards | 443 |
| 481 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 35/49 | Comp/Att | 20/35 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 31:34 | Possession | 28:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:36 SJSU punt on 4th & 2 at UNM 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 3.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:39SJSUSam Olson 1 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–38
- Q3 0:00SJSUBailey Gaither 69 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)21–31
- Q3 8:00SJSUMatt Mercurio 35 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q3 10:55UNMTevaka Tuioti 1 Yd Run (George Steinkamp Kick)21–21
- Q2 2:06UNMAndrew Erickson 4 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (George Steinkamp Kick)14–21
- Q2 6:10SJSUTre Walker 26 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)7–21
- Q2 9:33UNMCedric Patterson III 39 Yd pass from Tevaka Tuioti (George Steinkamp Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:36SJSUIsaiah Hamilton 43 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–14
- Q1 0:31SJSUTre Walker 37 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Matt Mercurio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1230, SJSU Elo 1402 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM +4.5 (39% to win) — 14.0 points clear of SJSU's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #18 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →San José State leads 16–5–1 · San José State has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#36) | CORE overall | -12.4 (#100) |
| +3 / -5 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 2.74 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →