Hawai'i vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsHOU
- Q3 3:29HAWCalvin Turner 92 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)28–14
- Q3 3:45HOUChristian Trahan 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–14
- Q3 7:39HOUNathaniel Dell 7 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:05HAWJonah Laulu 4 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:35HAWCalvin Turner 75 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:43HAWDae Dae Hunter 3 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.4 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassChevan Cordeiro 15/23, 136 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCalvin Turner Jr. 12 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecCalvin Turner Jr. 4 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassClayton Tune 20/38, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushMulbah Car 15 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecTank Dell 6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:23HAW +22%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down
- Q3 3:45HOU +21%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 26 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q1 3:35HAW +19%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Calvin Turner for 75 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q1 10:43HAW +19%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Dae Dae Hunter for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q2 8:05HAW +11%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jonah Laulu for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q3 7:39HOU +8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Houston?
Hawai'i 28, Houston 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 267 | Total yards | 307 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 58 |
| 11 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 21/43 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 5-25 |
| 26:56 | Possession | 33:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:27 HOU punt on 4th & 1 at HOU 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 3:29HAWCalvin Turner 92 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew Shipley Kick)28–14
- Q3 3:45HOUChristian Trahan 26 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–14
- Q3 7:39HOUNathaniel Dell 7 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:05HAWJonah Laulu 4 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:35HAWCalvin Turner 75 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:43HAWDae Dae Hunter 3 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1529, HAW Elo 1413 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects HOU -4.6 (63% to win) — 2.4 points clear of HAW's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #57 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| HAW | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0 (#68) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#63) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -3 / -4 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →