Boston College vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 4:54BCDanny Longman 29 Yd Field Goal 26–6
- Q3 1:26BCZay Flowers 61 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Danny Longman Kick)23–6
- Q3 2:39BCHunter Long 9 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Danny Longman PAT failed)16–6
- Q3 9:24BCDanny Longman 24 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q1 3:00DUKEMataeo Durant 49 Yd Run (Charlie Ham PAT failed)7–6
- Q1 7:46BCDavid Bailey 1 Yd Run (Danny Longman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassPhil Jurkovec 17/23, 300 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDavid Bailey 18 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZay Flowers 5 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Brice 23/42, 217 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDeon Jackson 15 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecNoah Gray 5 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:50BC +31%
24-P.Garwo to DUK 38 for 12 yards (29-N.Thompson)
- Q4 3:49DUKE +23%
8-C.Brice incomplete. INTERCEPTED by 8-J.Muse at BC 11. 8-J.Muse to BC 49 for 38 yards (4-D.Jackson)
- Q4 4:57BC +22%
37-D.Longman 29 yards Field Goal is Good
- Q1 7:55BC +18%
26-D.Bailey runs 1 yard for a touchdown
- Q4 0:39BC +17%
kneels at DUK 30 for -2 yards
- Q1 3:10DUKE +16%
21-M.Durant runs 49 yards for a touchdown
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Duke?
Boston College 26, Duke 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 351 |
| 300 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/23 | Comp/Att | 23/42 |
| 13.0 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 3-32 | Penalties | 4-56 |
| 36:18 | Possession | 23:42 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:25 DUKE punt on 4th & 1 at DUKE 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:54BCDanny Longman 29 Yd Field Goal 26–6
- Q3 1:26BCZay Flowers 61 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Danny Longman Kick)23–6
- Q3 2:39BCHunter Long 9 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Danny Longman PAT failed)16–6
- Q3 9:24BCDanny Longman 24 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q1 3:00DUKEMataeo Durant 49 Yd Run (Charlie Ham PAT failed)7–6
- Q1 7:46BCDavid Bailey 1 Yd Run (Danny Longman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1416, BC Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -0.4 (52% to win) — 3.1 points clear of BC's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #79 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Boston College leads 5–4 · 56% have been one-possession games
| BC | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 (#69) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#112) |
| +5 / +6 | offense / defense | -10 / +5 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.70 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →