Washington vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WASHTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 12:35WASHCade Otton 15 Yd pass from Jacob Eason (Peyton Henry Kick)14–20
- Q3 2:40COLOAlex Fontenot 2 Yd Run (Evan Price Kick)7–20
- Q3 8:03WASHRichard Newton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Henry Kick)7–13
- Q2 1:37COLOLaviska Shenault Jr. 39 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)0–13
- Q2 7:18COLOEvan Price 23 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:23COLOEvan Price 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJacob Eason 21/34, 206 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRichard Newton 12 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Bryant 5 REC, 82 YDS
- PassSteven Montez 17/28, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlex Fontenot 24 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLaviska Shenault Jr. 7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:40COLO +32%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)
- Q2 1:37COLO +24%
Steven Montez pass complete to Laviska Shenault Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)
- Q4 12:35WASH +22%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Cade Otton for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Henry KICK)
- Q4 5:05COLO +21%
Steven Montez run for 12 yds to the Colo 18 for a 1ST down
- Q4 7:45COLO +20%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the Colo 40
- Q4 12:35COLO +20%
Alex Kinney punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 12
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington vs. Colorado?
Washington 14, Colorado 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WASH | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Total yards | 430 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 32 | Rushing yards | 207 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-68 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 29:00 | Possession | 31:00 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 WASH go for it on 4th & 8 at COLO 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.64 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:35WASHCade Otton 15 Yd pass from Jacob Eason (Peyton Henry Kick)14–20
- Q3 2:40COLOAlex Fontenot 2 Yd Run (Evan Price Kick)7–20
- Q3 8:03WASHRichard Newton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Henry Kick)7–13
- Q2 1:37COLOLaviska Shenault Jr. 39 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Evan Price Kick)0–13
- Q2 7:18COLOEvan Price 23 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:23COLOEvan Price 22 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1340, WASH Elo 1795 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +15.8 (16% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #20 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Washington leads 13–7–1 · 38% have been one-possession games
| WASH | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.0 (#34) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#78) |
| -1 / -10 | offense / defense | +3 / +7 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 1.45 | allowed / drive | 2.84 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →