NC State vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsWVU
- Q4 3:04WVULeddie Brown 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)27–44
- Q4 12:24WVUAli Jennings 9 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)27–38
- Q3 0:10NCSUChristopher Dunn 37 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 2:14NCSUChristopher Dunn 41 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 6:24WVUKennedy McKoy 5 Yd Run (Evan Staley Kick)21–31
- Q3 10:42WVUEvan Staley 23 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q2 0:34WVUGeorge Campbell 13 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)21–21
- Q2 3:13NCSUCary Angeline 18 Yd pass from Thayer Thomas (Christopher Dunn Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:11NCSUJordan Houston 1 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:54WVUKennedy McKoy 23 Yd Run (Evan Staley Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:49NCSUThayer Thomas 8 Yd pass from Matthew McKay (Christopher Dunn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:06WVUSam James 20 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMatthew McKay 23/48, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBam Knight 12 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecEmeka Emezie 12 REC, 103 YDS
- PassAustin Kendall 27/40, 272 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKennedy McKoy 10 CAR, 66 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSam James 9 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWVU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:34WVU +23%
Austin Kendall pass complete to George Campbell for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
- Q2 3:13NCSU +23%
Thayer Thomas pass complete to Cary Angeline for 18 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q3 6:24WVU +21%
Kennedy McKoy run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
- Q4 12:24WVU +20%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Ali Jennings for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
- Q2 12:11NCSU +20%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
- Q1 3:54WVU +18%
Kennedy McKoy run for 23 yds for a TD, (Evan Staley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. West Virginia?
NC State 27, West Virginia 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WVU) was correct.
| NCSU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 445 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 272 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 24 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/49 | Comp/Att | 27/40 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-88 | Penalties | 12-105 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:42 WVU punt on 4th & 10 at NCSU 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:04WVULeddie Brown 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)27–44
- Q4 12:24WVUAli Jennings 9 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)27–38
- Q3 0:10NCSUChristopher Dunn 37 Yd Field Goal 27–31
- Q3 2:14NCSUChristopher Dunn 41 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q3 6:24WVUKennedy McKoy 5 Yd Run (Evan Staley Kick)21–31
- Q3 10:42WVUEvan Staley 23 Yd Field Goal 21–24
- Q2 0:34WVUGeorge Campbell 13 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)21–21
- Q2 3:13NCSUCary Angeline 18 Yd pass from Thayer Thomas (Christopher Dunn Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:11NCSUJordan Houston 1 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:54WVUKennedy McKoy 23 Yd Run (Evan Staley Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:49NCSUThayer Thomas 8 Yd pass from Matthew McKay (Christopher Dunn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:06WVUSam James 20 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Evan Staley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1609, NCSU Elo 1641 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU -1.1 (54% to win) — 8.1 points clear of WVU's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #59 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →West Virginia leads 6–5 · 9% have been one-possession games
| NCSU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#113) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#80) |
| -13 / +4 | offense / defense | -5 / -1 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 1.46 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.40 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →