Miami vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsFIU
- Q4 0:31MIADee Wiggins 3 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)24–30
- Q4 2:17FIUAnthony Jones 37 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)17–30
- Q4 3:10MIAMark Pope 35 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)17–23
- Q4 8:07MIACam'Ron Harris 14 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)10–23
- Q4 11:04FIUTony Gaiter IV 13 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)3–23
- Q3 1:52MIACamden Price 22 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q3 9:02FIUJose Borregales 53 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 0:02FIUJose Borregales 50 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:59FIUShemar Thornton 29 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:08FIUJose Borregales 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FIU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.0
- FIU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassJarren Williams 19/36, 249 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushCam'Ron Harris 11 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWill Mallory 4 REC, 71 YDS
- PassJames Morgan 16/30, 160 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAnthony Jones 16 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTony Gaiter IV 6 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:59FIU +21%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 29 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q4 3:10FIU +17%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37
- Q4 3:10MIA +13%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 35 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
- Q3 1:52FIU +13%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Austin Maloney, broken up by Romeo Finley FLORIDA INTL Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined
- Q2 0:02FIU +11%
Jose Borregales 50 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:31FIU +10%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 45
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Florida International?
Miami 24, Florida International 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 297 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 164 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 26 | First downs | 17 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 14-126 |
| 29:47 | Possession | 30:13 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:08 MIA punt on 4th & 2 at MIA 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31MIADee Wiggins 3 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)24–30
- Q4 2:17FIUAnthony Jones 37 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)17–30
- Q4 3:10MIAMark Pope 35 Yd pass from Jarren Williams (Camden Price Kick)17–23
- Q4 8:07MIACam'Ron Harris 14 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)10–23
- Q4 11:04FIUTony Gaiter IV 13 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)3–23
- Q3 1:52MIACamden Price 22 Yd Field Goal 3–16
- Q3 9:02FIUJose Borregales 53 Yd Field Goal 0–16
- Q2 0:02FIUJose Borregales 50 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:59FIUShemar Thornton 29 Yd pass from James Morgan (Jose Borregales Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:08FIUJose Borregales 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1313, MIA Elo 1635 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU +10.5 (25% to win) — 10.5 points clear of FIU's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #7 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| MIA | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.7 (#35) | CORE overall | -3.6 (#71) |
| -2 / -11 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 2.22 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →