Baylor vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsOKST
- Q4 5:13BAYJaMycal Hasty 73 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)45–27
- Q4 8:00BAYTerrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick)38–27
- Q4 9:04BAYCharlie Brewer 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)31–27
- Q4 12:55OKSTLD Brown 68 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)24–27
- Q3 2:36BAYJosh Fleeks 64 Yd pass from Charlie Brewer (John Mayers Kick)24–20
- Q3 8:42BAYJaMycal Hasty 5 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)17–20
- Q3 9:35OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)10–20
- Q2 1:32BAYJohn Mayers 28 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 4:15OKSTChuba Hubbard 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–13
- Q1 6:37OKSTJordan McCray 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Matt Ammendola PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 12:06BAYJohn Lovett 25 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BAY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OKST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassCharlie Brewer 13/17, 312 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJaMycal Hasty 16 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJoshua Fleeks 3 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSpencer Sanders 18/32, 157 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChuba Hubbard 32 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTylan Wallace 6 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBAY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:04BAY +41%
Charlie Brewer run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q4 12:55OKST +35%
LD Brown run for 68 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q3 2:36BAY +31%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 64 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q4 8:00BAY +30%
Terrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick)
- Q3 8:42BAY +21%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
- Q2 4:15OKST +21%
Chuba Hubbard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. Oklahoma State?
Baylor 45, Oklahoma State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 536 | Total yards | 469 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 224 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 18.4 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-66 | Penalties | 8-92 |
| 28:12 | Possession | 31:48 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:48 BAY punt on 4th & 1 at BAY 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:13BAYJaMycal Hasty 73 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)45–27
- Q4 8:00BAYTerrel Bernard 20 Yd Fumble Return (John Mayers Kick)38–27
- Q4 9:04BAYCharlie Brewer 2 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)31–27
- Q4 12:55OKSTLD Brown 68 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)24–27
- Q3 2:36BAYJosh Fleeks 64 Yd pass from Charlie Brewer (John Mayers Kick)24–20
- Q3 8:42BAYJaMycal Hasty 5 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)17–20
- Q3 9:35OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)10–20
- Q2 1:32BAYJohn Mayers 28 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 4:15OKSTChuba Hubbard 2 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–13
- Q1 6:37OKSTJordan McCray 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Matt Ammendola PAT blocked)7–6
- Q1 12:06BAYJohn Lovett 25 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1651, BAY Elo 1617 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -3.8 (61% to win) — 2.2 points clear of BAY's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #71 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 23–21 · Baylor has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| BAY | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.8 (#20) | CORE overall | +7.6 (#36) |
| +1 / -14 | offense / defense | +5 / -3 |
| 2.49 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →