Old Dominion vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 6:30LIBPeytton Pickett 2 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–52
- Q4 7:56LIBPeytton Pickett 53 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–45
- Q4 12:22LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 22 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:42LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 10 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:25LIBKentory Matthews 57 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–24
- Q3 4:58LIBAaron Peart 20 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:55ODUSteven Williams 1 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:05ODUNick Rice 48 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 9:13LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 4 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:04LIBDJ Stubbs 35 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassSteven Williams 14/30, 132 YDS
- RushSteven Williams 10 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonathan Duhart 7 REC, 83 YDS
- PassStephen Calvert 25/36, 345 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKentory Matthews 17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ Stubbs 7 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:25LIB +14%
Kentory Matthews run for 57 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
- Q2 9:55ODU +12%
Steven Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
- Q1 13:04LIB +12%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 35 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
- Q1 9:13LIB +8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 4 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)
- Q3 4:58LIB +8%
Aaron Peart 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:30LIB +5%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Liberty?
Old Dominion 10, Liberty 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| ODU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 301 | Total yards | 591 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 353 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 238 |
| 18 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/34 | Comp/Att | 26/37 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 6-58 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:54 ODU punt on 4th & 9 at LIB 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:30LIBPeytton Pickett 2 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–52
- Q4 7:56LIBPeytton Pickett 53 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–45
- Q4 12:22LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 22 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:42LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 10 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)10–31
- Q3 2:25LIBKentory Matthews 57 Yd Run (Aaron Peart Kick)10–24
- Q3 4:58LIBAaron Peart 20 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:55ODUSteven Williams 1 Yd Run (Nick Rice Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:05ODUNick Rice 48 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 9:13LIBAntonio Gandy-Golden 4 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)0–14
- Q1 13:04LIBDJ Stubbs 35 Yd pass from Stephen Calvert (Aaron Peart Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1444, ODU Elo 1251 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -10.1 (76% to win) — 15.1 points clear of LIB's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #76 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| ODU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.2 (#121) | CORE overall | -17.0 (#112) |
| -7 / +13 | offense / defense | -10 / +7 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.98 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →