Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsSDSU
- Q3 1:54FRESJosh Hokit 4 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)27–3
- Q3 6:03FRESJimmy Camacho 43 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 2:05FRESJimmy Camacho 38 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:32FRESJosh Hokit 26 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)14–3
- Q2 11:53SDSUJohn Baron II 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 0:15FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMarcus McMaryion 10/16, 176 YDS
- RushJordan Mims 21 CAR, 112 YDS
- RecDa'Mari Scott 3 REC, 57 YDS
- PassChristian Chapman 10/20, 77 YDS
- RushRashaad Penny 15 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecMikah Holder 4 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:32FRES +23%
Josh Hokit run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
- Q1 0:15FRES +19%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
- Q2 2:05FRES +14%
Jimmy Camacho 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:03FRES +11%
Jimmy Camacho 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 11:53SDSU +7%
John Baron II 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:25FRES +7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 16 yds to the SDSt 26
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. San Diego State?
Fresno State 27, San Diego State 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 375 | Total yards | 255 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 90 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 165 |
| 15 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 11/23 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 28:36 | Possession | 31:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:21 FRES punt on 4th & 2 at SDSU 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:54FRESJosh Hokit 4 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)27–3
- Q3 6:03FRESJimmy Camacho 43 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 2:05FRESJimmy Camacho 38 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:32FRESJosh Hokit 26 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)14–3
- Q2 11:53SDSUJohn Baron II 37 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 0:15FRESJosh Hokit 1 Yd Run (Jimmy Camacho Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1663, FRES Elo 1407 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -12.6 (80% to win) — 6.1 points clear of SDSU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #66 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →San Diego State leads 19–13 · San Diego State has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FRES | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.1 (#42) | CORE overall | +7.9 (#40) |
| +1 / -6 | offense / defense | -0 / -8 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.43 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →