Central Michigan vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsKU
- Q4 9:50CMUMark Chapman 75 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)45–27
- Q4 10:02KUDom Williams 2 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)38–27
- Q4 13:29CMUMark Chapman 7 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)38–20
- Q3 5:48CMUDevon Spalding 1 Yd Run (Michael Armstrong Kick)31–20
- Q3 8:50KUDom Williams 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)24–20
- Q3 13:54KURyan Schadler 33 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)24–13
- Q2 0:06CMUCorey Willis 6 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)24–6
- Q2 2:59CMULogan Hessbrook 40 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)17–6
- Q2 4:35KUGabriel Rui 33 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 10:57CMUMark Chapman 14 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)10–3
- Q2 13:00CMUMichael Armstrong 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:29KUGabriel Rui 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassShane Morris 28/37, 467 YDS, 5 TD
- RushJonathan Ward 11 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecMark Chapman 8 REC, 168 YDS, 3 TD
- PassPeyton Bender 32/62, 323 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDom Williams 18 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- RecQuan Hampton 6 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:50KU +20%
Dom Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK)
- Q2 10:57CMU +19%
Shane Morris pass complete to Mark Chapman for 14 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
- Q3 5:48CMU +19%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
- Q2 2:59CMU +17%
Shane Morris pass complete to Logan Hessbrook for 40 yds for a TD, (Michael Armstrong KICK)
- Q3 13:54KU +10%
Ryan Schadler run for 33 yds for a TD, (Gabriel Rui KICK)
- Q1 1:29KU +9%
Gabriel Rui 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Kansas?
Central Michigan 45, Kansas 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.
| CMU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 590 | Total yards | 470 |
| 467 | Passing yards | 323 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 26 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-18 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 28/37 | Comp/Att | 32/62 |
| 12.6 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-80 | Penalties | 9-65 |
| 30:45 | Possession | 29:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 CMU punt on 4th & 6 at KU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:50CMUMark Chapman 75 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)45–27
- Q4 10:02KUDom Williams 2 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)38–27
- Q4 13:29CMUMark Chapman 7 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)38–20
- Q3 5:48CMUDevon Spalding 1 Yd Run (Michael Armstrong Kick)31–20
- Q3 8:50KUDom Williams 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)24–20
- Q3 13:54KURyan Schadler 33 Yd Run (Gabriel Rui Kick)24–13
- Q2 0:06CMUCorey Willis 6 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)24–6
- Q2 2:59CMULogan Hessbrook 40 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)17–6
- Q2 4:35KUGabriel Rui 33 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 10:57CMUMark Chapman 14 Yd pass from Shane Morris (Michael Armstrong Kick)10–3
- Q2 13:00CMUMichael Armstrong 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:29KUGabriel Rui 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1192, CMU Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +2.8 (44% to win) — 5.8 points clear of CMU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #92 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| CMU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.6 (#79) | CORE overall | -19.0 (#119) |
| -6 / -1 | offense / defense | -11 / +8 |
| 1.86 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 3.27 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 45% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →