Colorado State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 4:50SDSUJuwan Washington 81 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)63–31
- Q4 12:54CSUIzzy Matthews 4 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)63–24
- Q3 0:59CSUMarvin Kinsey Jr. 27 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)56–24
- Q3 4:53CSUMichael Gallup 6 Yd pass from Detrich Clark (Wyatt Bryan Kick)49–24
- Q2 0:15CSURobert Ruiz 5 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)42–24
- Q2 2:24SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)35–24
- Q2 4:59CSURobert Ruiz 91 Yd Punt Return (Wyatt Bryan Kick)35–17
- Q2 7:14CSUMichael Gallup 18 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)28–17
- Q2 11:39SDSUJohn Baron II 34 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 14:11SDSUMikah Holder 25 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:07CSUIzzy Matthews 3 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:41SDSUDavid Wells 25 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:12CSUDetrich Clark 27 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:35CSUMichael Gallup 35 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SDSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
- SDSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 29% success rate
- PassNick Stevens 10/15, 210 YDS, 4 TD
- RushIzzy Matthews 14 CAR, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMichael Gallup 7 REC, 139 YDS, 3 TD
- PassChristian Chapman 11/19, 183 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJuwan Washington 6 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMikah Holder 3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCSU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:15CSU +30%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 7:14CSU +24%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 4:59CSU +23%
Tanner Blain punt for 51 yds, Robert Ruiz returns for 91 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q1 3:07CSU +20%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 2:24SDSU +19%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
- Q1 8:12CSU +19%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 27 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. San Diego State?
Colorado State 63, San Diego State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 377 |
| 216 | Passing yards | 183 |
| 291 | Rushing yards | 194 |
| 23 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/16 | Comp/Att | 11/19 |
| 13.5 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 32:09 | Possession | 27:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:59 SDSU punt on 4th & 1 at SDSU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:50SDSUJuwan Washington 81 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)63–31
- Q4 12:54CSUIzzy Matthews 4 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)63–24
- Q3 0:59CSUMarvin Kinsey Jr. 27 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)56–24
- Q3 4:53CSUMichael Gallup 6 Yd pass from Detrich Clark (Wyatt Bryan Kick)49–24
- Q2 0:15CSURobert Ruiz 5 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)42–24
- Q2 2:24SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)35–24
- Q2 4:59CSURobert Ruiz 91 Yd Punt Return (Wyatt Bryan Kick)35–17
- Q2 7:14CSUMichael Gallup 18 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)28–17
- Q2 11:39SDSUJohn Baron II 34 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 14:11SDSUMikah Holder 25 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:07CSUIzzy Matthews 3 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)21–7
- Q1 5:41SDSUDavid Wells 25 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:12CSUDetrich Clark 27 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:35CSUMichael Gallup 35 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1824, CSU Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -16.7 (86% to win) — 4.7 points clear of SDSU's market line of -12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #44 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →San Diego State leads 23–15 · 37% have been one-possession games
| CSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#63) | CORE overall | +14.9 (#15) |
| +6 / +5 | offense / defense | +2 / -13 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 2.72 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.36 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →