Texas Tech vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TTUTeam statsARK
- Q4 13:09TTUJustin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)35–24
- Q3 2:00ARKCole Hedlund 22 Yd Field Goal 28–24
- Q3 10:31TTUPatrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:03ARKDrew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:52TTUReginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:18ARKHunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:21TTUPatrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:06ARKAlex Collins 1 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:45TTUReginald Davis 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Michael Barden Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassPatrick Mahomes 26/30, 243 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeAndre Washington 11 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecReginald Davis III 5 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBrandon Allen 16/21, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlex Collins 28 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDrew Morgan 4 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:09TTU +27%
Justin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
- Q3 10:31TTU +27%
Patrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
- Q2 1:03ARK +22%
Drew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)
- Q2 7:52TTU +21%
Reginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick)
- Q1 0:21TTU +20%
Patrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)
- Q2 8:18ARK +19%
Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. Arkansas?
Texas Tech 35, Arkansas 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARK, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TTU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 486 | Total yards | 424 |
| 315 | Passing yards | 196 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/31 | Comp/Att | 16/21 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 5-43 |
| 23:17 | Possession | 36:43 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:00 ARK field goal on 4th & 4 at TTU 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:09TTUJustin Stockton 22 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)35–24
- Q3 2:00ARKCole Hedlund 22 Yd Field Goal 28–24
- Q3 10:31TTUPatrick Mahomes 2 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)28–21
- Q2 1:03ARKDrew Morgan 24 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:52TTUReginald Davis 72 Yd pass from Jakeem Grant (Michael Barden Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:18ARKHunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:21TTUPatrick Mahomes 1 Yd Run (Michael Barden Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:06ARKAlex Collins 1 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:45TTUReginald Davis 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Michael Barden Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1766, TTU Elo 1541 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK -11.4 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #35 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Arkansas leads 30–8 · 26% have been one-possession games
| TTU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#72) | CORE overall | +18.4 (#13) |
| +15 / +16 | offense / defense | +20 / +2 |
| 3.11 | points / drive | 3.16 |
| 3.04 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →