McNeese vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

McNeese

▸0053

South Florida

0021

Final

Raymond James Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MCNE	2	31	10	10	53
USF	7	0	7	7	21

MCNETeam statsUSF

424Total yards342

244Pass209

180Rush133

19First downs14

6-153rd down3-13

1Turnovers3

35:54Possession24:06

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:37MCNEMCNEESE ST 24 yard field goal GOOD.53–21
• Q4 12:59MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.50–21
• Q4 12:59MCNEMCNEESE ST pass complete for a touchdown.50–21
• Q4 13:57USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.43–21
• Q4 13:57USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.43–20
• Q3 4:23MCNEMCNEESE ST 32 yard field goal GOOD.43–14
• Q3 11:23USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.40–14
• Q3 11:23USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.40–14
• Q3 12:46MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.40–7
• Q3 12:46MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.39–7
• Q2 0:12MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.33–7
• Q2 0:12MCNEMCNEESE ST interception return for a touchdown.33–7
• Q2 3:13MCNEMCNEESE ST 47 yard field goal GOOD.26–7
• Q2 6:47MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.23–7
• Q2 6:47MCNEMCNEESE ST pass complete for a touchdown.23–7
• Q2 10:38MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.16–7
• Q2 10:38MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.15–7
• Q2 11:02MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.9–7
• Q2 11:02MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.8–7
• Q1 7:55USFSOUTH FLORIDA rush for a safety.2–7
• Q1 12:47USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.0–7
• Q1 12:47USFSOUTH FLORIDA rush for a touchdown.0–6

How the model called it

Market line

USF −20.5

Against the number

MCNE covered

line USF −20.5

What the numbers say

• MCNE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 7.6

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MCNE aheadUSF ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = MCNE ahead, below = USF ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

USF −20.5

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

MCNE 53 – 21 USF

consensus, liveUSF −20.5

Leaders

McNeese

• PassCody Stroud 12/21, 207 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushMarcus Wiltz 13 CAR, 79 YDS
• RecNic Jacobs 5 REC, 122 YDS, 2 TD

South Florida

• PassBobby Eveld 10/20, 137 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMarcus Shaw 12 CAR, 145 YDS, 1 TD
• RecStephen Bravo-Brown 1 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.56

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MCNE up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

MCNE went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOregon vs Stanford42-6WNorth Dakota State vs Murray State38-6WWyoming vs Nevada42-6WJames Madison vs Coastal Carolina39-7WSouth Dakota State vs Missouri State45-9

Fourth downs

17 calls

USF gave up 1.6 points to the model on fourth down.MCNE 2/6 · USF 5/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of McNeese vs. South Florida?

McNeese 53, South Florida 21.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MCNE

USF

53%

Success rate

35%

0.57

EPA / pass

-0.14

-0.13

EPA / rush

-0.04

56%

Early-down success

37%

62%

Pass success

33%

48%

Rush success

38%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

38%

Pass rate

67%

11.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.6

MCNE

11.1 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

USF

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MCNE		USF
424	Total yards	342
244	Passing yards	209
180	Rushing yards	133
19	First downs	14
6-15	3rd down	3-13
1-1	4th down	2-5
16/25	Comp/Att	19/40
9.8	Yards per pass	5.2
4.3	Yards per rush	6.3
1	Turnovers	3
4-33	Penalties	3-44
35:54	Possession	24:06

Fourth downs

17 calls

MCNE

2/6 with the model

−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

USF

5/9 with the model

−1.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 12:40 MCNE punt on 4th & 2 at MCNE 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MCNE 9/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 5/14 scoring drives

MCNEUncateg0 pl, 0 yds· opp 25Q1

MCNEPUNT4 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1

USFTD1 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

MCNEPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 26Q1

USFSAF6 pl, -10 yds· own 10Q1

MCNEINT3 pl, -11 yds· own 35Q1

USFFG MISS5 pl, 25 yds· midfieldQ1

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1

USFPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 34Q1

MCNETD9 pl, 91 yds· own 9Q1

USFFUM1 pl, 2 yds· own 5Q2

MCNETD1 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q2

USFPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

MCNETD4 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q2

USFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 9Q2

MCNEFG GOOD3 pl, 3 yds· opp 33Q2

USFTD10 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q2

MCNEINT0 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q2

USFUncateg0 pl, 0 yds· opp 35Q3

USFINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

MCNETD5 pl, 16 yds· opp 16Q3

USFTD4 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q3

MCNEFG GOOD12 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q3

USFTD13 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

MCNETD2 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4

USFDOWNS5 pl, 17 yds· own 32Q4

MCNEFG GOOD9 pl, 42 yds· opp 49Q4

USFDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· own 26Q4

MCNEEND7 pl, 16 yds· opp 33Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:37MCNEMCNEESE ST 24 yard field goal GOOD.53–21
• Q4 12:59MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.50–21
• Q4 12:59MCNEMCNEESE ST pass complete for a touchdown.50–21
• Q4 13:57USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.43–21
• Q4 13:57USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.43–20
• Q3 4:23MCNEMCNEESE ST 32 yard field goal GOOD.43–14
• Q3 11:23USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.40–14
• Q3 11:23USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.40–14
• Q3 12:46MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.40–7
• Q3 12:46MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.39–7
• Q2 0:12MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.33–7
• Q2 0:12MCNEMCNEESE ST interception return for a touchdown.33–7
• Q2 3:13MCNEMCNEESE ST 47 yard field goal GOOD.26–7
• Q2 6:47MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.23–7
• Q2 6:47MCNEMCNEESE ST pass complete for a touchdown.23–7
• Q2 10:38MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.16–7
• Q2 10:38MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.15–7
• Q2 11:02MCNEMCNEESE ST Extra point GOOD.9–7
• Q2 11:02MCNEMCNEESE ST rush for a touchdown.8–7
• Q1 7:55USFSOUTH FLORIDA rush for a safety.2–7
• Q1 12:47USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.0–7
• Q1 12:47USFSOUTH FLORIDA rush for a touchdown.0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

McNeese were +20.5 — a 10% shot

#1 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #8 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →