Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsTTU
- Q4 13:39ASUARIZONA ST 33 yard field goal GOOD.23–37
- Q3 5:28TTUTEXAS TECH 23 yard field goal GOOD.20–37
- Q3 13:02TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.20–34
- Q3 13:02TTUTEXAS TECH kickoff return for a touchdown.20–33
- Q3 13:13ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.20–27
- Q3 13:13ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.19–27
- Q2 7:52ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.13–27
- Q2 7:52ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.12–27
- Q2 10:08TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.6–27
- Q2 10:08TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.6–26
- Q2 14:30TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.6–20
- Q2 14:30TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.6–19
- Q1 2:22ASUARIZONA ST 31 yard field goal GOOD.6–13
- Q1 4:26ASUARIZONA ST 44 yard field goal GOOD.3–13
- Q1 6:27TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.0–13
- Q1 6:27TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.0–12
- Q1 9:41TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
- PassTaylor Kelly 16/29, 125 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTaylor Kelly 25 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKevin Ozier 2 REC, 31 YDS
- PassDavis Webb 28/41, 403 YDS, 4 TD
- RushDeAndre Washington 14 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJace Amaro 8 REC, 112 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:55TTU +23%
Matt Haack punt for 33 yards, fair catch by Jordan Davis at the TexTc 31
- Q3 13:13ASU +19%
Taylor Kelly rush for 44 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:30TTU +19%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bradley Marquez for 23 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:27TTU +16%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 18 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 10:08TTU +16%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jakeem Grant for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 7:52ASU +15%
D.J. Foster rush for 20 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Texas Tech?
Arizona State 23, Texas Tech 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 412 | Total yards | 484 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 403 |
| 287 | Rushing yards | 81 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 28/41 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-59 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 29:11 | Possession | 30:49 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:19 TTU punt on 4th & 3 at TTU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:39ASUARIZONA ST 33 yard field goal GOOD.23–37
- Q3 5:28TTUTEXAS TECH 23 yard field goal GOOD.20–37
- Q3 13:02TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.20–34
- Q3 13:02TTUTEXAS TECH kickoff return for a touchdown.20–33
- Q3 13:13ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.20–27
- Q3 13:13ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.19–27
- Q2 7:52ASUARIZONA ST Extra point GOOD.13–27
- Q2 7:52ASUARIZONA ST rush for a touchdown.12–27
- Q2 10:08TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.6–27
- Q2 10:08TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.6–26
- Q2 14:30TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.6–20
- Q2 14:30TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.6–19
- Q1 2:22ASUARIZONA ST 31 yard field goal GOOD.6–13
- Q1 4:26ASUARIZONA ST 44 yard field goal GOOD.3–13
- Q1 6:27TTUTEXAS TECH Extra point GOOD.0–13
- Q1 6:27TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.0–12
- Q1 9:41TTUTEXAS TECH pass complete for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1555, ASU Elo 1894 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TTU +13.6 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#39 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #27 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →