#10Taylor Kelly

QB·Arizona State·20130.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taylor Kelly is a Clutch Passer for Arizona State. Taylor's 2013 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 537 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taylor Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

302/484 Comp/Att3635 Pass yards28 Pass TD12 INT62.4% Comp %

Rushing

608 Rush yards9 Rush TD173 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Punting

6 Punts223 Punt yards37.2 Yards/punt50 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat42
Consistency70
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.50 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Colorado (SP+ -1).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsSacramento State	W55-0	—	23/31	300	5	0	96.0	25	0	0.46
3	vsWisconsin	W32-30	22.4	29/51	352	0	1	49.7	24	0	0.04
4	@Stanford	L28-42	21.7	30/55	367	3	2	38.0	-4	0	0.12
5	vsUSC	W62-41	22.5	23/34	351	3	1	94.9	79	0	0.35
6	vsNotre Dame	L34-37	13.2	33/47	362	3	2	57.9	5	0	0.39
7	vsColorado	W54-13	-0.7	9/19	233	2	0	96.0	36	1	0.50
8	vsWashington	W53-24	20.5	26/42	271	2	1	75.6	84	2	0.21
10	@Washington State	W55-21	8.2	22/31	275	5	1	96.1	66	2	0.08
11	@Utah	W20-19	11.8	19/31	144	1	0	23.8	-9	2	-0.06
12	vsOregon State	W30-17	11.9	22/37	183	0	2	28.8	6	0	0.01
13	@UCLA	W38-33	20.0	20/27	225	1	0	72.4	99	1	0.39
14	vsArizona	W58-21	14.6	13/25	274	2	1	61.6	26	0	0.17
15	vsStanford	L14-38	21.7	17/25	173	1	0	32.9	36	0	0.12
1	vsTexas Tech	L23-37	14.0	16/29	125	0	1	54.1	135	1	-0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.8%

Passing plays

95.3%

Rushing plays

23.8%

Standard downs

51.1%

Passing downs

67.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.04
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.