Watchlist
Week 10 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.
The five
- 1Time TBDOhio Stadiummodel Ohio State by 1.2market -6
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 29/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 1/10
76score - 2Sat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ETNotre Dame Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 2.9market -6.5
- Projected closeness 26/35
- Team quality 29/30
- Stakes 14/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 1/10
73score - 3Time TBDVaught-Hemingway Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 3.4market +4.5
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 28/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 3/10
71score - 4#15BYUat#20UtahHoly WarTime TBDRice-Eccles Stadiummodel BYU by 5.0market -3
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 14/15
- History 9/10
- Points on the board 2/10
71score - 5Time TBDTiger Stadium (LA)model LSU by 6.9market -3.5
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 2/10
65score
The rest of the slate
- 6Time TBDHusky Stadiummodel Washington by 7.0
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 27/30
- Stakes 14/15
- Points on the board 3/10
62score - 7Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel Texas by 7.0
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 1/10
61score - 8TempleatNavyTemple-NavySat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ETNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadiummodel Navy by 0.9
- Projected closeness 32/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 8/10
- Points on the board 4/10
56score - 9Fri, Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)model Nebraska by 3.4
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
55score - 10Time TBDRyan Fieldmodel Northwestern by 6.2
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 3/10
54score - 11Time TBDDavis Wade Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 5.3
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
51score - 12Time TBDBen Hill Griffin Stadiummodel Oklahoma by 8.0
- Projected closeness 16/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 8/15
- Points on the board 2/10
51score - 13Time TBDVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)model Louisiana Tech by 1.1
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 12/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
50score - 14Time TBDCarter-Finley Stadiummodel NC State by 5.4
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 5/10
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 15Fri, Nov 6 · 7:30 PM ETDowdy-Ficklen Stadiummodel South Florida by 4.1
- Projected closeness 23/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 16Thu, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ETM. M. Roberts Stadiummodel Southern Miss by 2.0
- Projected closeness 29/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 17Time TBDBobby Dodd Stadiummodel Louisville by 6.8
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 18Time TBDWilliams-Brice Stadiummodel Texas A&M by 11.3
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 2/10
48score - 19Thu, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM ETFAU Stadiummodel UTSA by 0.2
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 7/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
48score - 20Time TBDJordan-Hare Stadiummodel Auburn by 6.6
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
48score - 21TulsaatTulaneTulane-TulsaTime TBDYulman Stadiummodel Tulane by 3.6
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 8/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 7/10
- Points on the board 4/10
47score - 22Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel Kansas by 3.4
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
46score - 23Time TBDHornet Stadiummodel Sacramento State by 5.1
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 5/10
45score - 24Tue, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM ETInfoCision Stadiummodel Ohio by 0.7
- Projected closeness 33/35
- Team quality 2/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
43score - 25Time TBDNeyland Stadiummodel Tennessee by 11.8
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
43score - 26Time TBDCEFCU Stadiummodel Northern Illinois by 0.3
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 6/30
- Stakes 3/15
43score - 27Time TBDHuntington Bank Stadiummodel Minnesota by 4.4
- Projected closeness 23/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 3/10
43score - 28Time TBDCamp Randall Stadiummodel Wisconsin by 4.1
- Projected closeness 23/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 29Time TBDMcLane Stadiummodel Baylor by 10.2
- Projected closeness 13/35
- Team quality 17/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 30Time TBDRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Maryland by 3.2
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 8/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
40score - 31Air ForceatArmyCommander-in-Chief's TrophySat, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM ETMichie Stadiummodel Army by 10.0
- Projected closeness 13/35
- Team quality 14/30
- History 9/10
- Points on the board 4/10
39score - 32Time TBDMountain America Stadiummodel Arizona State by 7.0
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 14/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
39score - 33Fri, Nov 6 · 10:15 PM ETArizona Stadiummodel Arizona by 11.1
- Projected closeness 12/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 3/10
39score - 34Time TBDTDECU Stadiummodel Houston by 15.6
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 35Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ETGerald J. Ford Stadiummodel SMU by 11.9
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 36Fri, Nov 6 · 9:00 PM ETMackay Stadiummodel New Mexico by 9.2
- Projected closeness 14/35
- Team quality 15/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 37Sat, Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ETMaverik Stadiummodel Utah State by 7.0
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 38Michigan StateatMichiganPaul Bunyan TrophyTime TBDMichigan Stadiummodel Michigan by 19.4market -16.5
- Projected closeness 5/35
- Team quality 17/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 9/10
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 39Sat, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM ETPitbull Stadiummodel Missouri State by 3.8
- Projected closeness 24/35
- Team quality 6/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 3/10
36score - 40Time TBDFord Fieldmodel Eastern Michigan by 5.4
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 4/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 5/10
36score
How the score is built
- Projected closeness — 35 points
- Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
- Team quality — 30 points
- Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
- Stakes — 15 points
- Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
- Rivalry history — 10 points
- From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
- Points on the board — 10 points
- The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.
There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.