Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Iowa State gets at Baylor: 63rd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 118th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Baylor gets at Iowa State: 25th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 65th at closing out passing downs. Baylor is also 30th at throwing it, against a unit 68th.
How
ISUattacks
BAY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ISU#63 of 138BAY#118 of 138
HowBAYattacksISU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
BAY#25 of 138ISU#65 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BAY#30 of 138ISU#68 of 138
The two teams
Iowa State
Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The strengths are defensive, led by 35th at defending the run. The way in is 112th at hitting chunk plays.
Iowa State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#112projected
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 25th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 118th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#25projected
- Offensefirst and second down#25projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#25projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#118projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, ISU Elo 1592 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -10.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ISU61st75thBAYBAY122nd12thISUThrough the air
ISU95th114thBAYBAY20th40thISUOn the ground
ISU111th83rdBAYBAY116th22ndISUStaying on the field
ISU81st131stBAYBAY112th54thISUTaking care of it
ISU31st30thBAYBAY68th30thISU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBaylor leads 12–11 · Iowa State has won 2 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| ISU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.4 (#66) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#33) |
| -2 / -3 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Iowa State vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa State vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 10.2.
What time is Iowa State vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →