Arkansas vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arkansas gets at Auburn: 41st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 77th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Auburn gets at Arkansas: 23rd at running it, against a unit 120th at defending the run. Auburn is also 50th on first and second down, against a unit 115th.
How
ARKattacks
AUB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ARK#41 of 138AUB#77 of 138
HowAUBattacksARK
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
AUB#23 of 138ARK#120 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
AUB#50 of 138ARK#115 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
AUB#39 of 138ARK#96 of 138
The two teams
Arkansas
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 10th in the push up front. The way in is 128th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 126th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#10projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#13projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#126projected
- Defensethrowing it#117projected
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at defending the run. The way in is 129th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#5projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#5projected
- Defensefirst and second down#20projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1688, ARK Elo 1547 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -6.6 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARK113th51stAUBAUB108th18thARKThrough the air
ARK49th131stAUBAUB55th16thARKOn the ground
ARK80th59thAUBAUB94th8thARKStaying on the field
ARK15th56thAUBAUB20th6thARKTaking care of it
ARK95th53rdAUBAUB95th88thARK
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 21–13–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| ARK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.0 (#49) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#59) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Auburn?
Gridpex's model favors Auburn with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Auburn?
The model projects Auburn by 6.6.
What time is Arkansas vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →