Boise State vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsORE
- Q4 7:51OREDan. Moore pass to Dak. Moore for 62 yds, for a TD (G. Hurych KICK)27–34
- Q4 8:45BOISCanaan Moore 36 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 14:49OREGage Hurych 44 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 1:20BOISMatt Wagner 7 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:36OREJeremiah McClellan 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)17–24
- Q3 11:30OREGage Hurych 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:19OREJamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:48BOISCanaan Moore 29 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 10:14BOISSire Gaines 38 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:17OREJ. Davison run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Hurych KICK)7–7
- Q1 8:37BOISCam Bates 13 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Two offenses that wouldn't stop — and the handful of plays that decided it.
Neither defense had any answers. Oregon outlasts Boise State, 34-27 at Autzen Stadium. The two sides combined for 61 points, and Oregon had just a little more. Dakorien Moore caught six passes for 93 yards, one of them for a touchdown.
- PassMaddux Madsen 15/29, 181 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDylan Riley 17 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecRasean Jones 4 REC, 76 YDS
- PassDante Moore 28/37, 378 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordon Davison 12 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah McClellan 6 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:00BOIS +44%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #3 J.McClellan thrown to BSU10 PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (#6 J.Washington Jr.) 15 yards from BSU26 to BSU11, 1ST…
- Q4 1:47ORE +28%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU26 (#1 B.Phelps; #17 L.Brantley)
- Q3 15:00ORE +23%
Shotgun #6 D.Hill Jr rush left for 10 yards gain to the ORE35 (#17 L.Brantley; #4 T.Anderson), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:19ORE +21%
Jamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)
- Q3 5:36ORE +21%
Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass complete short left to #3 J.McClellan caught at BSU06, for 8 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:45BOIS +20%
#48 C.Moore field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Oregon?
Boise State 27, Oregon 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| BOIS | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 274 | Total yards | 497 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 378 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 15/29 | Comp/Att | 28/38 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 10-90 |
| 31:54 | Possession | 28:06 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:49 BOIS punt on 4th & 2 at BOIS 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:51OREDan. Moore pass to Dak. Moore for 62 yds, for a TD (G. Hurych KICK)27–34
- Q4 8:45BOISCanaan Moore 36 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 14:49OREGage Hurych 44 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 1:20BOISMatt Wagner 7 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)24–24
- Q3 5:36OREJeremiah McClellan 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)17–24
- Q3 11:30OREGage Hurych 26 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 0:19OREJamari Johnson 27 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:48BOISCanaan Moore 29 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 10:14BOISSire Gaines 38 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)14–7
- Q2 11:17OREJ. Davison run for 1 yd, for a TD (G. Hurych KICK)7–7
- Q1 8:37BOISCam Bates 13 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Canaan Moore Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1880, BOIS Elo 1562 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -23.1 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BOIS | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.6 (#45) | CORE overall | +16.4 (#23) |
| +7 / +1 | offense / defense | +7 / -9 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.31 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Dakorien Moore produced eight of Oregon's nine explosive plays
Two offenses that wouldn't stop — and the handful of plays that decided it.
Who carried it
Dakorien Moore caught six passes for 93 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Jeremiah McClellan caught six passes for 150 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Jordon Davison ran 12 times for 90 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. For Boise State, Maddux Madsen threw for 181 yards on 29 attempts with three touchdowns, ran seven times for 5 yards and caught one pass for 6 yards — that score from inside the 20, two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Rasean Jones caught four passes for 76 yards — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Sire Gaines ran 11 times for 39 yards and caught two passes for 44 yards, one of them for a touchdown. Bear Alexander was the disruptive one for Oregon: 1 sack, 1 TFL, 5.5 tackles.
Where it swung
Strip it back and a few snaps did the work. Dakorien Moore's 39-yard throw to Evan Stewart on 3rd-and-10 at Q3 15:00. Then Dakorien Moore's 51-yard throw to Jeremiah McClellan on 1st-and-10 at Q3 01:20. Later, Dakorien Moore's 62-yard throw to Dakorien Moore for a touchdown on 2nd-and-8 at Q4 07:51.
The big plays only went one way
Oregon produced 9 plays of 15+ yards to Boise State's 4, led by Dakorien Moore (involved in 8), Jeremiah McClellan (involved in 3) and Evan Stewart (involved in 2). Oregon started 10 yards closer to the end zone on an average drive. That's what carried Oregon.
The way it played out
Boise State struck first through Maddux Madsen, led 17-14 at the half and Oregon got the final points on a late touchdown by Dakorien Moore.
The takeaway
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Oregon won the track meet, but both defenses have work to do.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →