Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Kansas gets at Oklahoma State: 20th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 110th at keeping everything in front of them. Oklahoma State projects no clear way in against Kansas. Kansas is also 21st in the push up front, against a unit 111th.
How
KUattacks
OKST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 45% this season, 2 games
KU1.55#20 of 138OKST1.33#110 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 2 games in
KU2.87#21 of 138OKST2.94#111 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected · 2 games in
KU48%#38 of 138OKST48%#124 of 138
The two teams
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 134th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 122nd at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line12.5%#14 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.55#20 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line30.2%#28 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.55#134 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.48#122 of 138
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State throws it: Eric Morris's offenses have been pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 136th at running it, and they are 134th at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+15.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is +8.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it+0.06#136 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.02#134 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.57#133 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1247, KU Elo 1473 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +0.6 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KU67th91stOKSTOKST97th69thKUThrough the air
KU57th76thOKSTOKST40th69thKUOn the ground
KU58th73rdOKSTOKST55th63rdKUStaying on the field
KU85th25thOKSTOKST117th53rdKUTaking care of it
KU118th53rdOKSTOKST133rd53rdKU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 41–31–3 · 37% have been one-possession games
| KU | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.2 (#63) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#128) |
| +3 / +1 | offense / defense | -12 / +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kansas vs. Oklahoma State?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kansas vs. Oklahoma State?
The model projects Kansas by 0.6.
What time is Kansas vs. Oklahoma State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Boone Pickens Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →