Washington vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Washington gets at Michigan State: 14th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 122nd at shutting down the ground game. Michigan State projects no clear way in against Washington. Washington is also 9th on first and second down, against a unit 108th.
How
WASHattacks
MSU
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 23% this season, 2 games
WASH42%#14 of 138MSU44%#122 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 23% this season, 2 games
WASH53%#9 of 138MSU41%#108 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 20% this season, 2 games
WASH17%#33 of 138MSU29%#103 of 138
The two teams
Washington
Washington throws it: Jedd Fisch's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at generating havoc. The way in is 136th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Washington has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.8%#8 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down53%#9 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss9.2%#11 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.99#136 of 138
Michigan State
Michigan State is in year 1 under Pat Fitzgerald, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 131st at staying out of the backfield, and they are 122nd at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line15.9%#131 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground44%#122 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.05#120 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1528, WASH Elo 1757 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +15.1 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WASH102nd79thMSUMSU91st46thWASHThrough the air
WASH51st38thMSUMSU66th47thWASHOn the ground
WASH109th40thMSUMSU39th38thWASHStaying on the field
WASH101st53rdMSUMSU43rd31stWASHTaking care of it
WASH1st76thMSUMSU21st5thWASH
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WASH | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.9 (#34) | CORE overall | -0.8 (#74) |
| -1 / -12 | offense / defense | +0 / +1 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 3.56 |
| 1.09 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 6% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington vs. Michigan State?
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington vs. Michigan State?
The model projects Washington by 15.1.
What time is Washington vs. Michigan State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Spartan Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →