Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Liberty gets at Middle Tennessee: 87th at throwing it, against a unit 133rd at defending the pass. Middle Tennessee projects no clear way in against Liberty. Liberty is also 76th on first and second down, against a unit 119th.
How
LIBattacks
MTSU
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
LIB#87 of 138MTSU#133 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
LIB#76 of 138MTSU#119 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
LIB#79 of 138MTSU#122 of 138
The two teams
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at defending the pass, and they are 124th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.2%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#133projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#124projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#123projected
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 119th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
- Defenserunning it#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1697, MTSU Elo 1277 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -14.3 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MTSU53rd62ndLIBLIB108th90thMTSUThrough the air
MTSU75th34thLIBLIB88th41stMTSUOn the ground
MTSU78th95thLIBLIB90th91stMTSUStaying on the field
MTSU119th78thLIBLIB110th53rdMTSUTaking care of it
MTSU21st46thLIBLIB48th76thMTSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.7 (#108) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#89) |
| -6 / +4 | offense / defense | -1 / +4 |
| 1.82 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 1.27 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty?
The model projects Liberty by 14.3.
What time is Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →