South Florida vs. East Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at East Carolina: 24th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 91st at keeping everything in front of them. East Carolina projects no clear way in against South Florida.
How
USFattacks
ECU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USF#24 of 138ECU#91 of 138
The two teams
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#118projected
East Carolina
East Carolina is in year 3 under Blake Harrell. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 112th at hitting chunk plays.
East Carolina has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#20projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#112projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1462, USF Elo 1676 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +4.1 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USF113th106thECUECU115th84thUSFThrough the air
USF112th119thECUECU97th82ndUSFOn the ground
USF112th115thECUECU125th100thUSFStaying on the field
USF52nd112thECUECU138th51stUSFTaking care of it
USF1st109thECUECU74th22ndUSF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Florida leads 9–4 · East Carolina has won 3 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| USF | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#51) | CORE overall | -1.4 (#76) |
| +3 / -3 | offense / defense | -0 / +1 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 1.13 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 2.96 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Florida vs. East Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Florida vs. East Carolina?
The model projects South Florida by 4.1.
What time is South Florida vs. East Carolina and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET, at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →