Iowa State vs. UCF Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Iowa State gets at UCF: 81st on first and second down, against a unit 123rd on early downs defensively. Where UCF gets at Iowa State: 6th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 56th at keeping everything in front of them. Iowa State is also 81st at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 121st.
How
ISUattacks
UCF
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
ISU#81 of 138UCF#123 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ISU#81 of 138UCF#121 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ISU#75 of 138UCF#112 of 138
HowUCFattacksISU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UCF#6 of 138ISU#56 of 138
The two teams
Iowa State
Iowa State is in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers. The way in is 107th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Iowa State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#107projected
UCF
UCF is in year 2 under Scott Frost, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UCF has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#6projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#123projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1468, ISU Elo 1588 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -5.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ISU100th16thUCFUCF41st23rdISUThrough the air
ISU123rd29thUCFUCF99th43rdISUOn the ground
ISU109th57thUCFUCF52nd27thISUStaying on the field
ISU96th17thUCFUCF64th52ndISUTaking care of it
ISU21st76thUCFUCF21st46thISU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ISU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.8 (#44) | CORE overall | +3.6 (#57) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | -5 / -9 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 0.46 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 0.91 |
| 60% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -15 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Iowa State vs. UCF?
Gridpex's model favors UCF with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Iowa State vs. UCF?
The model projects UCF by 5.7.
What time is Iowa State vs. UCF and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 20, 6:00 PM ET, at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →