#3Xavier Townsend

WR·UCF·2024

Xavier Townsend is a Versatile WR for UCF.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Xavier Townsend's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

88 Rush yards0 Rush TD12 Carries7.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

10 Receptions69 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Returns

7 Kick returns162 KR yards0 KR TD10 Punt returns121 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency38
Volume21
Explosiveness0
Consistency41
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency41th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Colorado (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNew Hampshire	W57-3	—	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.18
2	vsSam Houston	W45-14	-6.9	3	17	5.7	0	7	0.63
3	@TCU	W35-34	10.8	2	-2	-1.0	0	2	-0.28
5	vsColorado	L21-48	8.1	4	50	12.5	1	22	0.81

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.5%

Passing plays

10.5%

Rushing plays

6.0%

Standard downs

7.2%

Passing downs

8.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.67
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / -0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).