#17Tyler Rogers

QB·New Mexico State·20173.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tyler Rogers is a Clutch Passer for New Mexico State. Tyler's 2017 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 615 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Rogers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

348/566 Comp/Att4016 Pass yards27 Pass TD18 INT61.5% Comp %

Rushing

20 Rush yards7 Rush TD76 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat42
Consistency76
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Troy (SP+ 2).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Arizona State	L31-37	1.0	40/57	398	3	2	54.9	7	1	0.22
2	@New Mexico	W30-28	-12.4	34/57	401	4	1	74.1	1	0	0.31
3	vsTroy	L24-27	1.6	32/45	331	3	0	84.5	5	0	0.46
4	vsUTEP	W41-14	-27.4	26/43	283	2	1	51.9	4	1	0.28
5	@Arkansas	L24-42	2.1	23/38	344	2	1	60.8	-14	1	0.41
6	@App State	L31-45	3.8	27/50	356	2	6	20.2	0	1	0.00
7	@Georgia Southern	W35-27	-15.8	31/51	382	3	2	60.0	16	1	0.33
9	vsArkansas State	L21-37	1.5	20/40	221	1	2	16.3	-31	1	-0.09
10	@Texas State	W45-35	-23.5	29/46	474	3	0	84.4	33	1	0.42
12	@Louisiana	L34-47	-15.8	17/24	184	1	0	63.3	3	0	0.43
14	vsSouth Alabama	W22-17	-12.0	40/61	451	2	1	55.4	-20	0	0.19
1	vsUtah State	W26-20	-3.3	29/54	191	1	2	16.0	16	0	-0.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

69.2%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

18.2%

Standard downs

63.0%

Passing downs

79.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.00
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.