#22Trey Watts

RB·Tulsa·20131.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Trey Watts is a Pass-Catching Back for Tulsa. Trey's 2013 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 262 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trey Watts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1329 Rush yards11 Rush TD268 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

46 Receptions395 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Returns

9 Kick returns186 KR yards0 KR TD22 Punt returns147 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume87
Explosiveness40
Consistency65
Receiving75

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs East Carolina (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Bowling Green	L7-34	9.8	4	8	2.0	0	5	33	0	-0.12
2	vsColorado State	W30-27	3.0	22	152	6.9	0	8	58	0	0.29
3	@Oklahoma	L20-51	19.6	14	60	4.3	1	5	65	0	0.28
5	vsIowa State	L21-38	-3.8	14	38	2.7	1	7	69	0	0.16
6	vsRice	L27-30	-1.5	34	165	4.9	2	3	25	0	-0.09
7	@UTEP	W34-20	-28.9	27	142	5.3	0	2	5	0	-0.08
9	@Tulane	L7-14	-8.0	21	63	3.0	1	2	27	0	0.44
10	vsUTSA	L15-34	-6.6	15	109	7.3	0	5	40	0	0.32
11	@East Carolina	L24-58	7.5	27	120	4.4	1	4	48	1	0.56
12	vsMarshall	L34-45	8.3	31	169	5.5	2	1	2	0	0.20
13	@Louisiana Tech	W24-14	-16.8	40	189	4.7	3	4	23	0	-0.03
14	vsNorth Texas	L10-42	1.0	19	114	6.0	0	—	—	—	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.6%

Passing plays

12.6%

Rushing plays

47.6%

Standard downs

37.1%

Passing downs

17.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.06

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.