#3Taulia Tagovailoa

QB·Maryland·2023 2022 20217.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taulia Tagovailoa is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Maryland. Taulia's 2021 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 484 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taulia Tagovailoa's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

328/474 Comp/Att3860 Pass yards26 Pass TD11 INT69.2% Comp %

Rushing

77 Rush yards2 Rush TD80 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency81
Clutch64

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Rutgers (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWest Virginia	W30-24	1.8	26/36	332	3	0	74.1	3	0	0.38
2	vsHoward	W62-0	—	22/27	274	3	0	82.0	8	0	0.65
3	@Illinois	W20-17	4.3	32/43	350	1	0	84.6	25	0	0.39
4	vsKent State	W37-16	-6.4	31/41	384	3	1	66.8	-3	0	0.50
5	vsIowa	L14-51	11.4	16/29	157	2	5	40.3	24	0	0.36
6	@Ohio State	L17-66	29.3	28/39	279	2	2	45.9	-61	0	-0.01
8	@Minnesota	L16-34	14.4	17/27	189	1	0	59.4	10	0	0.29
9	vsIndiana	W38-35	-7.8	26/40	419	2	0	83.7	0	0	0.47
10	vsPenn State	L14-31	14.3	41/57	371	1	1	52.8	-29	0	0.23
11	@Michigan State	L21-40	11.2	29/48	350	2	1	45.0	12	0	0.06
12	vsMichigan	L18-59	23.4	19/33	178	1	1	45.7	30	1	0.10
13	@Rutgers	W40-16	-3.0	21/30	312	3	0	90.4	16	1	0.81
1	vsVirginia Tech	W54-10	2.4	20/24	265	2	0	95.8	42	0	0.71

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.3%

Passing plays

95.5%

Rushing plays

12.2%

Standard downs

49.2%

Passing downs

81.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2023 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Maryland	7.0	0.471	—	250.9
2022	Maryland	5.8	0.416	-0.05	206.5
2023	Maryland	7.5	0.493	+0.08	234.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.