#8Tanner Mordecai

QB·SMU·2022 20219.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Tanner Mordecai is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for SMU. Tanner's 2022 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 468 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tanner Mordecai's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

288/443 Comp/Att3524 Pass yards33 Pass TD10 INT65.0% Comp %

Rushing

100 Rush yards2 Rush TD59 Carries1.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency73
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.92 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Houston (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@North Texas	W48-10	-1.5	23/32	432	4	0	95.8	-7	0	0.90
2	vsLamar	W45-16	—	18/31	212	3	1	63.1	—	—	0.44
3	@Maryland	L27-34	11.2	29/54	369	3	2	52.7	18	0	-0.14
4	vsTCU	L34-42	24.3	27/49	372	2	2	55.2	4	0	0.65
6	@UCF	L19-41	10.3	28/45	295	0	1	60.8	-3	0	0.13
7	vsNavy	W40-34	-7.2	20/27	336	3	0	81.4	74	1	0.77
8	vsCincinnati	L27-29	13.1	15/25	105	1	1	12.0	-41	0	-0.16
10	vsHouston	W77-63	4.5	28/37	379	9	0	98.5	54	1	0.92
11	@South Florida	W41-23	-17.0	19/27	280	2	0	72.2	6	0	0.40
12	@Tulane	L24-59	12.4	32/49	298	2	2	26.5	0	0	0.13
13	vsMemphis	W34-31	6.8	22/30	228	2	0	80.4	13	0	0.37
1	vsBYU	L23-24	-1.4	27/37	218	2	1	—	-18	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.2%

Passing plays

91.2%

Rushing plays

10.6%

Standard downs

46.2%

Passing downs

69.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.66
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	SMU	14.0	0.630	—	321.5
2022	SMU	9.0	0.503	-0.13	248.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.