#6Sterling Lockett

WR·Kansas State·2025

Sterling Lockett is a Slot Specialist WR for Kansas State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sterling Lockett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

3 Receptions39 Rec yards0 Rec TD13.0 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns44 KR yards0 KR TD13 Punt returns56 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume9
Explosiveness40
Consistency47
Pass-Down45

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Peak game: 1.80 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Colorado (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Dakota	W38-35	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	vsArmy	L21-24	0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	@Arizona	L17-23	12.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.46
5	vsUCF	W34-20	-1.2	1	13	13.0	0	13	0.26
6	@Baylor	L34-35	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	vsTCU	W41-28	8.3	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	@Kansas	W42-17	4.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	@Oklahoma State	W14-6	-15.1	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	@Utah	L47-51	22.2	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	vsColorado	W24-14	-8.3	2	26	13.0	0	19	1.80

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

3.2%

Passing plays

8.2%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

0.8%

Passing downs

7.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.56
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).