#26Sire Gaines

RB·Boise State·2025

Sire Gaines is a Explosive Back for Boise State. Sire's 2025 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 156 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sire Gaines's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

812 Rush yards8 Rush TD161 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

11 Receptions72 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume48
Explosiveness40
Consistency40
Receiving34

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.14 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs UNLV (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@South Florida	L7-34	11.6	9	44	4.9	0	3	17	0	-0.48
2	vsEastern Washington	W51-14	—	14	98	7.0	1	1	11	0	0.37
4	@Air Force	W49-37	-3.2	3	34	11.3	0	—	—	—	0.77
5	vsApp State	W47-14	-11.4	12	69	5.8	0	2	5	0	-0.10
6	@Notre Dame	L7-28	24.4	11	39	3.5	0	—	—	—	0.11
7	vsNew Mexico	W41-25	0.9	20	65	3.3	2	1	4	0	0.37
8	vsUNLV	W56-31	4.3	6	24	4.0	1	1	20	1	0.81
9	@Nevada	W24-3	-13.4	17	62	3.6	1	—	—	—	-0.09
10	vsFresno State	L7-30	1.8	7	39	5.6	0	1	-2	0	-0.01
12	@San Diego State	L7-17	6.7	13	78	6.0	0	—	—	—	0.12
13	vsColorado State	W49-21	-15.6	22	149	6.8	2	1	12	0	0.51
14	@Utah State	W25-24	-3.1	10	31	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.39
15	vsUNLV	W38-21	4.3	9	64	7.1	1	—	—	—	0.61
20	vsWashington	L10-38	18.4	8	16	2.0	0	1	5	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.7%

Passing plays

3.1%

Rushing plays

29.8%

Standard downs

21.2%

Passing downs

7.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: -0.13
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).