#32Shock Linwood

RB·Baylor·2015 2014 20131.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shock Linwood is a 3-year Committee Back for Baylor. Shock's 2013 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 75 plays — a average rate for the RB. Shock's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shock Linwood's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

881 Rush yards8 Rush TD128 Carries6.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions19 Rec yards0 Rec TD4.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume38
Explosiveness78
Consistency36
Receiving14

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -26).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWofford	W69-3	—	10	59	5.9	1	—	—	—	-0.01
2	vsBuffalo	W70-13	-9.0	12	76	6.3	2	—	—	—	0.25
4	vsUL Monroe	W70-7	-26.2	6	57	9.5	1	—	—	—	0.56
6	vsWest Virginia	W73-42	-0.9	14	126	9.0	1	—	—	—	0.47
8	vsIowa State	W71-7	-3.8	4	19	4.8	0	—	—	—	-0.15
9	@Kansas	W59-14	-9.7	9	106	11.8	2	—	—	—	0.15
11	vsOklahoma	W41-12	19.6	23	182	7.9	0	—	—	—	0.23
12	vsTexas Tech	W63-34	14.0	29	187	6.4	1	1	15	0	0.36
13	@Oklahoma State	L17-49	21.8	14	29	2.1	0	1	0	0	-0.57
14	@TCU	W41-38	12.4	1	7	7.0	0	1	1	0	-0.04
15	vsTexas	W30-10	10.5	3	14	4.7	0	—	—	—	0.24
1	vsUCF	L42-52	12.3	3	19	6.3	0	1	3	0	0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.2%

Passing plays

1.0%

Rushing plays

22.7%

Standard downs

15.1%

Passing downs

8.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Baylor	1.4	0.130	—	14.3
2014	Baylor	3.7	0.310	+0.18	77.2
2015	Baylor	2.4	0.290	-0.02	53.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.