#7Shane Buechele

QB·SMU·2020 20198.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Shane Buechele is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for SMU. Shane's 2020 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 398 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Buechele's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

242/367 Comp/Att3095 Pass yards23 Pass TD6 INT65.9% Comp %

Rushing

106 Rush yards2 Rush TD58 Carries1.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat75
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Navy (SP+ -9).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas State	W31-24	-13.4	26/36	367	1	2	0	0	0.31
3	@North Texas	W65-35	-8.0	24/33	344	4	0	29	1	0.62
4	vsStephen F. Austin	W50-7	—	14/23	141	2	0	-8	0	0.22
5	vsMemphis	W30-27	5.7	32/45	474	3	0	27	0	0.53
7	@Tulane	W37-34	4.2	23/37	384	2	0	-9	0	0.48
8	vsCincinnati	L13-42	18.6	23/44	216	1	1	14	0	-0.09
9	vsNavy	W51-37	-9.3	23/28	300	3	0	16	0	0.75
10	@Temple	W47-23	-10.0	24/35	355	4	0	19	0	0.60
11	@Tulsa	L24-28	5.6	18/36	200	1	1	18	0	0.11
13	@East Carolina	L38-52	-11.0	35/50	314	2	2	0	1	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.9%

Passing plays

98.5%

Rushing plays

11.5%

Standard downs

47.9%

Passing downs

75.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	SMU	11.3	0.524	—	307.0
2020	SMU	8.4	0.482	-0.04	203.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.